Will my net worth be above Ṁ30,000 in a week?
21
100Ṁ3819
resolved Apr 27
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if my net worth is greater than Ṁ30,000 at 18:00 PDT on April 26th.

  • Update 2025-04-26 (PST): - Net worth for resolution refers to the displayed net worth on my Manifold profile (the graph shown in the description). (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Net worth for resolution refers to the displayed net worth on the creator’s Manifold profile page (the graph shown in the description).

    • This value includes any mana from loans or other changes as reflected in that display.

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bought Ṁ10 NO

This one has to be paid back, so it will probably not count toward Evan's net worth.

I'm guessing this one, too.

@ChaosIsALadder It's based off of the displayed net worth on my Manifold profile (the graph shown in the description). Otherwise, my net worth would be about six thousand mana lower, and this would resolve NO.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@evan I think I have to contest that, because it's far too easy to manipulate the net worth shown on the Manifold profile. Your market title does not specifically refer to that, and the reasonable interpretation is that loans don't count toward net worth. They never do.

@ChaosIsALadder In real life, loans don't count towards net worth, true, but on Manifold, someone's mana net worth usually refers to the amount that's shown on their Manifold profile page. This is my sixth market about my Manifold net worth, and all of my other markets on this topic have resolved based on this displayed net worth value. I thought the screenshot I put in the description makes it clear what the resolution source is. It's true that this value can be easily manipulated (see this market) but that's kind of the point. I'll make this clearer in future markets, but this one will be resolving to YES.

@evan How do you get bounties on Manifold? I'm fairly new.

@musuko384 Basically, when someone makes a bounty market (seems to be partially deprecated now but can still be made by duplicating an existing one), they put mana into the bounty. The bounty creator can choose to send mana from the bounty to a user who comments on the market. It's useful for giving out loans, and to pay Manifold users for giving good answers to an important question. I was recently given two loans through the bounty system here and here.

Can you clarify if this resolves if your net worth exceeds Ṁ30,000 at any point, or does it have to be above 30,000 at a specific time?

@musuko384 It has to be above Ṁ30,000 at 6 PM in Pacific time, i.e. in about 3½ hours.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Please lock innnnnn I bet yes

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