The value of anything can't be more than the sum total value of all assets in the world, which is about $583 trillion. If you account for market impact, we can round that up to $1 quadrillion.

The value of AGI is infinite. The value of a market without AGI is also infinite in the long term. It just takes slower to achieve the same.

@SimoneRomeo You can say that about any asset, the value is "infinite" over a long term. That doesn't mean assets don't have certain finite values.

@spiderduckpig that's correct. Assets have finite values only if you mention a time frame. This market doesn't so I think the only right answer is infinite

I find this question slightly confusing because I'm not sure what counterfactual to compare sudden AGI with. The actual world that will eventually get AGI anyways in ~5-10 years?

If AGI occurred today, and GDP growth climbed up to transformative levels (~30%), but with a slow takeoff according to relatively conservative economic assumptions (~5 years), then world GDP would grow by several times before my median timeline for AGI arrives. Applying a modest, but slightly increasing over time (as overall growth sky-rockets) discount rate, gets a bit over $100T of expected NPV added by AGI now instead of waiting for it to be created in the actual world.

This seems like an underestimate of the real value of AGI, but not necessarily a full order of magnitude, so I picked the middle option. I could easily imagine being argued into a larger value, less easily a lower one.

Someone give me context; what things are on the order of 10^18 dollars (and what kind of $? current usd? y2000 usd?)

@ArtimisFowl present world wealth is of the order of ~10^3 T usd = 10^15 usd

there is ~10^16 watts of solar power falling on Earth annually

humans use 10^13 watts per year

so if value is proportional to energy consumption, going to 10^18 dollar wealth would be like becoming Kardashev level 1 civilization