It's not a bell curve, that's frustrating, it should be a bell curve

@digory it's essentially a two hump distribution

I think we are approaching a dissensus

@JordanChua @Zsigmondy @robert @PaperBoy @Conflux I haven't voted on this poll yet, but what is the rationale for >50%? Most markets I'm finding give Biden a <30% chance to even live to see 2029:
/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-through-the-202
/PapiPalooza/will-joe-biden-survive-until-inaugu
/GamblingGamer/will-joe-biden-outlive-the-trump-pr
/StopPunting/will-joe-biden-survive-through-the-adabba853fb2
/TigranAskaryan/will-biden-die-before-end-of-hypoth

And then you have to price in the chance of him resigning, which would only decrease his odds from there.

Unless:
1. These markets are all wildly overvaluing Biden's chance of death over the next few years
2. Biden winning in 2024 would have dramatically increased his life expectancy
3. Some other possibility I didn't think of

@evan people might be looking at overall prostate cancer survival at 5 years (~95%) vs Gleason 9 survival rate which is

and also perhaps not thinking about his mental decline plus the stress of the position plus the additional stress of treatment and him going on hormone therapy for the cancer.

It doesn’t make much sense to me other than that.

@evan Oh nvm, I voted stupidly

There is a third point about a priori probability based on question wording … did he get the cancer while he was still president? Bc if after, butterfly effect, he might not have gotten cancer

@Conflux for metastasis to occur it must have been there for some time AFAIK.

@JasonQ Ok gotcha. Then I’d put his odds in line with the markets, around 10-30%.

Go play here then:

https://manifold.markets/Qoiuoiuoiu/will-joe-biden-die-of-prostate-canc?r=SnVzc2lWaWxsZUhlaXNrYW5lbg

Will Joe Biden die of prostate cancer by EOY 2027?

60% chance. Will he die, specifically because of prostate cancer, by the end of 2027? If he dies of a combination of factors including prostate cancer, resolves YES. Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If prostate cancer is a major contributing factor to death, the market resolves YES. This includes cases where prostate cancer or its treatment causes increased susceptibility to another condition that is the immediate cause of death.