Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
When will a national law be in force in the US imposing safety requirements on the training/deployment of AI models?
2
Ṁ340Ṁ144
resolved Feb 7
ResolvedN/A
12%
Before December 31, 2024
27%
Before December 31, 2025
17%
Before December 31, 2026
10%
Before December 31, 2027
5%
Before December 31, 2028
14%
Before December 31, 2029
13%
Before December 31, 2030
2%
After 2030 or never

The requirements must go beyond merely reporting the existence of such models and requiring basic cybersecurity precautions, and impose some form of evaluation for safety, or licensing, which could in principle lead to a model not being allowed to be trained or deployed if it doesn't meet the requirements of the law.

I will count either a law that has been passed by Congress and is in force (often laws take some time after passage to actually come into force, but this is usually specified in the text of the law) or an executive order that is not rescinded within 100 days when the opposing party takes the White House.

A law that comes into force and is later repealed will not cause a reopening of this market.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@traders

Ah, shoot, I started this one out as a multiple choice dependent, but then switched the wording around before posting it, should be multiple choice independent as worded...

Temporarily closing this market, to figure out whether the few market participants (there are 2 as far as I can see) would prefer I N/A and create a new question because they were betting based on the wording (as if multiple answers could resolve to yes) or would prefer I keep this one open and reword the options (In 2025, In 2026, In 2027, etc.) so that they are mutually exclusive.

@equinoxhq Happy with either!

@equinoxhq Fix it up they way you want and let us know. I will hop back in.

@traders Thanks for your understanding. Recreated as MC independent. New market: /equinoxhq/when-will-a-national-law-be-in-forc-4fcd263d06c8

@equinoxhq Just to clear up something, if they make a law in 2026 then all of the years after that resolve yes, correct?

@FakeMoney Correct. Is there a way that new market should be worded so as to make this clearer?

@FakeMoney Added some examples into the description to clarify.