How many launches will SpaceX successfully send to orbit in 2023?
19
181
αΉ€530
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
96

For reference, they did 61 in 2022. Counts Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and a successful Starship launch equally.

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πŸ“’Resolved to 96
Proof In Comments

predicted HIGHER

Should resolve to 96: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/29/spacex-rockets-2023-launch-record.html

(91 Falcon 9 and 5 Falcon Heavy; the two Starship launches don't count here because they did not reach orbit)

bought αΉ€100 of HIGHER

If launch gets rocket "successfully sent to orbit" but fails to deploy payload is that unsuccessful mission and not counted or is it just successful in getting to orbit so counted, or something else? e.g. Transporter 6 (3 Jan 2023) failed to deploy all payloads but most did deploy successfully. SpaceX may not have been responsible for this deployment, Can who is responsible for deployment matter? In this case large majority of payloads deployed so is that enough to be considered successful? Likewise if primary payload deploys but secondary payload fails to deploy, is that counted as successful launch to orbit?

predicted HIGHER

On track for 92 so far β€” last year they sped up during the year.

predicted HIGHER

@Mqrius Currently tracking about 88

bought αΉ€100 of HIGHER

@Mqrius Currently tracking about 89

bought αΉ€40 of HIGHER

Is this market capped at 100? And if so, why?
And what will the resolution be if it's more than 100?