Elon Musk has tweeted the aim is for up to 100 launches.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year

31 August 2022

This aim may well have included Starship flights but this claim excludes any without useful payload. Starlink satellites and test satellites are useful payload. A wheel of cheese or a Tesla car or a mass simulator or any similar items that are not expected to do anything are not useful payload. If some payload is expected to do something but in any way fails that is still ok and counts regardless of blame.

Numbers so far are

January 2023 7

February 2023 6

March 2023 8

April 2023 6

May 2023 9

June to 15th 4

Total year to 15 June 2023 40

Is there more acceleration in rate to come? Or could there be a mishap leading to F9 being grounded for an investigation, Pad time lost due to upgrades like planned tower build at pad 40 for cargo missions to ISS or maybe droneships will be unavailable for repairs or refurbishment. In short lots of things could slow them down. Elon Musk's aggressive timelines are notorious.

If 70 or less orbital launches with useful payload, claim will resolve No (i.e. 0%)

If 104 or more orbital launches with useful payload, claim will resolve Yes (i.e. 100%)

Between this it will resolve as the calculation in the question. So for example if there are 90 orbital launches with useful payload the the claim will be resolved with PROB=60% being (90-70)*3.

Claim will use UTC time.