MANIFOLD
How many successful SpaceX launches in January 2026 UTC
14
Ṁ1kṀ15k
resolved Jan 30
100%99.0%
13
0.5%
12 or less
0.1%
14
0.1%
15
0.1%
16
0.1%
17
0.1%
18 or more

Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=

for January 2026, UTC time.


If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.

A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.


Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.

(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated. Success may well be more of an issue with test flights.)


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Feb market at

bought Ṁ2 YES

3 successfully launched on 3rd 4th and 9th
5 planned by 18th, with a 6th planned on 23rd being first use of OCISLY for over a month

6 successfully launched on 3rd 4th 9th 11th 12th 14th
4 with planned dates in Jan to Jan 25th with a few more potential slots

8 successfully launched on 3rd 4th 9th 11th 12th 14th 17th and 18th
Just 2 with planned dates in Jan: 22nd and 25th

8 successfully launched on 3rd 4th 9th 11th 12th 14th 17th and 18th
Now filled out more planned launches
6 with planned dates in Jan
But note last one is 11:37pm on 31st so just a delay of 24 minutes would put this into February and the first slot in the window could easily turn out to be more than 24 minutes in. It could also be delayed if either of the launches on 26th and 29th from same pad are delayed as this is fairly tight for pad and drone ship turnarounds.


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