As of writing, 80,000 Hours lists positions normal engineering positions at OpenAI on their jobs board. This market will resolve YES if no OpenAI positions, aside from positions related directly to safety and AI policy, are listed on the 80k jobs board from Nov 1 2022 to January 1 2023.
Edit: Description should have said: "This market will resolve YES if no OpenAI positions, aside from positions related exclusively to safety and AI policy (and not capabilities)"
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ480 | |
| 2 | Ṁ150 | |
| 3 | Ṁ112 | |
| 4 | Ṁ82 | |
| 5 | Ṁ79 |
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I think the two Security Engineer roles are the best candidates for not meeting the criteria of being "exclusively related to safety and AI policy (and not capabilities)":
even though security is a safety adjacent thing, it's not really "AI safety" per se. I would expect a lot of it to be stuff that just helps their business operations like "make sure people are paying for their API usage"
there is a line about "collaborating on cutting edge AI research"
@WilliamHoward I agree that YES would be a reasonable resolution, the market was not very well designed. I chose NO because to me this role's entire function is to enable OpenAI's products and protect the products from human interference. Simply put, by taking this role and doing a good job at it, you would accomplish no more or less than making their capabilities work more profitable.
I acknowledge there is a meaningful definition of "capabilities roles" under which the above still doesn't count. Sorry I did not do a better job of writing the market.
@agrippa I'm not mad, but it is kind of anoying that the market resolved no, despite the roles being basically the same than when I bought yes based on my interpretation of the resolution criterion.
Especially cause it seems other people were also interpreting it that way going by how it was at 80% until the end.
But I guess it's really my fault for investing so much whithout confirmation that that was indeed how the market resolves.
@VictorLevoso Yeah, this decision seems puzzling. Security is generally considered "directly related to safety", because it's important in e.g. preventing dual use research from getting applied to bad things.
I also interpreted the spirit of the question to be "will 80 K list roles because they will generate career capital for the employee even though their direct impact is dubious/negative" and it seems that 80 K has pretty clearly stopped doing that.
@BenWest You are maybe looking at filter that doesn't include all the listings? I see Software Engineer, Safety listed.