Trump approval
VoteHub average
38.5%
Past 7 days
Elections
Live odds on 2028 and every race on the way there
The race for 2028
Who wins the White House, and who gets nominated.
Which party wins the presidencyMarket →
Chart range
1D
7D
1M
3M
6M
1Y
All
Who will win the White House?
Market →- 1
Jon OssoffSteady · 7d18% - 2
JD VanceDown 1 pt · 7d13% - 3
Gavin NewsomSteady · 7d9% - 4
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDown 2 pts · 7d9% - 5
Marco RubioDown 1 pt · 7d7% - 6
Josh ShapiroDown 1 pt · 7d3% - 7
Ron DeSantisUp 1 pt · 7d3% - 8
Pete ButtigiegSteady · 7d3%
Chart range
1D
7D
1M
3M
6M
1Y
All
Democratic nominee
Market →- 1Jon OssoffSteady · 7d26%
- 2Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDown 1 pt · 7d13%
- 3Gavin NewsomDown 1 pt · 7d11%
- 4Josh ShapiroSteady · 7d5%
- 5
Kamala HarrisDown 1 pt · 7d5%
Republican nominee
Market →- 1JD VanceDown 5 pts · 7d30%
- 2Marco RubioUp 1 pt · 7d16%
- 3Ron DeSantisSteady · 7d12%
- 4
Brian KempUp 1 pt · 7d2% - 5
Ted CruzDown 1 pt · 7d2%
Photos: Brian Kemp by Governo do Estado de São Paulo (CC BY 4.0), cropped.
Nov 7, 2028 · 723 days
The map
Every race by our odds, and the road to 270. Hover a state for its odds; click it for every market there.
319 DemocraticD270 to winRepublicanR 219
Electoral college modelDemocrats 66% · Republicans 34%Expected electoral votes: D 305, R 233. The national market says Democrats 67%.
Tipping pointsHow often each puts the winner over 270, in 20,000 simulations.
Loading the map…
Arrow keys move between places. Enter opens their markets.Republican50 / 50Democratic
No race in 2028Likeliest tipping pointsMaine and Nebraska: badge = statewide votes
Hover for the odds; click a state for its markets and to bet. Scroll or pinch to zoom; drag to move.
Congress and the popular vote
Who controls Washington after 2028, by how many seats, the popular vote, and how big the win is.
Who controls Washington after 2028
Market →Electoral votes
Market →
270–299electoral votes
Most likely · Democrat wins19%chance
67% Democrat wins
33% Republican wins or ties
270 to win; at 269–269 the House picksPick a bar to bet
The tipping-point state
Market →Count seats for
Democratic Senate seats after 2028
Market →57–59seats
Most likely · Democratic majority36%▲ 12.3 pts in 24h
93% Democratic majority
5% 50–50: the Vice President’s party
3% Republican majority
24 hours ago51 for a majority; the Vice President breaks a 50–50 tiePick a bar to bet
Democratic House seats after 2028
Market →243+seats
Most likely · Democratic majority26%chance
83% Democratic majority
17% Republican majority
218 for a majorityPick a bar to bet
Also on 2028
Nov 2, 2027 · 352 days
Off-year elections
Governors and legislatures in the odd years, the Speaker vote, and major elections abroad.
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- New Jersey
- Virginia
Around the world
January–June 2028
The primaries
Who runs, and who leads each party's contest in the early states.
Who's running
Each one's chance of running. Click a face to bet.Democrats
Republicans
The early states
Who leads each party's contest, in the order they vote. Click a name to bet.- 1Iowa
- 2New Hampshire
- 3South Carolina
- 4Nevada
Super Tuesday Mar 7, 2028Last primaries June 2028The other 53 contests, and Senate and governor primaries, on the map →
Summer 2028
Conventions and running mates
Each party's pick for vice president, who ends up on the winning ticket, and whether a convention goes past its first ballot.
Democratic VP nominee
On the winning ticket
President or vice president. Each name is its own market.2030–2036
After 2028
Which party holds the White House, Senate and House after each election, and the 2032 race.
| 2030Midterms | 2032Presidential | 2034Midterms | 2036Presidential | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White House | ||||
| Senate | ||||
| House |
* Not on the ballot in a midterm year: the party holding the White House then. Click a cell to bet on who controls Washington after that election.
What the 2028 winner would change
The same questions, asked under a Democratic and a Republican president. Click a chance to bet on it.
Chance of…
If the Democrat wins · 67%
If the Republican wins · 33%
Gap
S&P 500 up by end of 2029 (vs Election Day)
No gap
GDP shrinks in a quarter, 2029–30
No gap
Supreme Court grows beyond nine (by 2033)
24-pt gap
Marijuana federally descheduled (by 2033)
23-pt gap
Legislative filibuster ended (by 2031)
37-pt gap
Federal abortion-rights law (by 2033)
24-pt gap
Bitcoin above $250k at end of 2030
4-pt gap
Each market resolves N/A if its condition doesn't happen, so bets only count in that world.
Polling averages
VoteHub's live polling averages. Bet on whether they go higher or lower.
Vance favorability
VoteHub average
39.9%
Past 7 days
Unprecedented politics
Things that have never happened in American politics, with the market's live odds that they do.
Trending
The 2028 markets traders are most active in right now.
Nov 3, 2026
Replay the map as it changed →2026's biggest swings
The races Manifold's odds moved most on, from a week out to the result.
- Senate controlDemocrats 70% → won+30pts
- House controlDemocrats 94% → won+6pts
- NC-6Democrats 10% → won+90pts
- Wisconsin Question 2No 18% → won+82pts
- IN-5Democrats 20% → won+80pts
- South Carolina SenateDemocrats 23% → won+77pts
- TX-9Democrats 26% → won+74pts
- NJ-2Democrats 29% → won+71pts
- NC-9Democrats 31% → won+69pts
Leaderboards
Who has made the most on election markets, and whose markets draw the most traders.
Top traders
| # | Trader | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,024,069 | |
| 2 | Ṁ244,332 | |
| 3 | Ṁ220,993 | |
| 4 | Ṁ110,745 | |
| 5 | Ṁ55,839 | |
| 6 | Ṁ43,216 | |
| 7 | Ṁ27,061 | |
| 8 | Ṁ24,339 | |
| 9 | Ṁ21,771 | |
| 10 | Ṁ20,808 |
Top creators
| # | Trader | Traders |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6,654 | |
| 2 | 2,208 | |
| 3 | 1,183 | |
| 4 | 1,128 | |
| 5 | 805 | |
| 6 | 719 | |
| 7 | 434 | |
| 8 | 367 | |
| 9 | 284 | |
| 10 | 284 |
Profit, and traders on the markets each creator made, across the 2026 election topics.
More election markets
Search for markets, users, topics, and posts. Results update below as you type.