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MANIFOLD
What will the national popular vote margin be in the 2028 presidential election?
1
αΉ€10kαΉ€50
2028
1%
R+6 or more
2%
R+3 to R+6
7%
R+0 to R+3
17%
D+0 to D+3
25%
D+3 to D+6
24%
D+6 to D+9
24%
D+9 or more

Resolves to the range containing the national popular-vote margin in the November 7, 2028 election: the Democratic nominee's share minus the Republican nominee's, in percentage points, using certified first-preference vote totals from the 50 states and DC. A margin exactly on a boundary goes to the range farther from zero; exactly 0 resolves 50/50 between "R+0 to R+3" and "D+0 to D+3".

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