Pretty simple - do they get a DCM, DCO, or FCM from the CFTC?
Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that while they personally feel the 'spirit of the market' has not been met, they will resolve the market based on the community's preference.
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I think from the criteria this actually might resolve YES now already. With the acquisition of QCX, they do have a DCM and DCO at this moment!
@bens QCX is now owned by Polymarket. Their DCM is transferable and Polymarket is in possession of it! Whether they will use it in 2025 is another question, but they do in fact have it! Even if it is only currently usable on some subset of markets that Polymarket has not in fact yet created, they do have a DCM and are therefore currently within the regulatory system.
@brod I'm the creator of this market and I personally feel like the criteria to the spirit of the market hasn't been met. but I also don't give a fuck so we can go ahead and resolve it however you guys like
@eightyhi I feel like "Will Polymarket become legal and regulated in the US in 2025?" is straightforwardly resolved Yes at this point, but the criteria you put forth is definitely less clear. But, it can be interpreted as "Pretty simple - do they get a DCM, DCO, or FCM [originating] from the CFTC?" which is a valid interpretation of the sentence. I think resolving it yes would be more honest, IMO.
Matt Levine predicts it is likely. [Individual Investors Put Up the Cash - Bloomberg](https://archive.is/ftq5T)
Right now Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, is not allowed to offer bets to US customers. I predict that in a year that will not be true. Donald Trump’s administration seems generally crypto-friendly and deregulatory, and friendly to prediction markets and Polymarket specifically; also the courts have recently rejected regulatory limits on other prediction markets. Also the US regulatory environment for online gambling in general has gotten a lot friendlier. Prediction markets will be much more broadly legal in the US in a year than they are now, and Polymarket will be at or near the front of the line.