Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or larger during 2023?
54
277
985
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if there is an earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or larger reported in https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/m8-world.php

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predicted YES

A market for 2024:

predicted YES

7.6 today just off the coast of Mindanao in the Philippines

looks like 7 of the last 10 years have had one. Adding in that we're about a month into the year, around 65% sounds right.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@ShakedKoplewitz lol, so I'm going to have to overbid to get bidders...

Beat me

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