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Was this really a noticeable season? What could I use as criteria next year if I do a similar question?

Why I was so confident here fyi: at the link you can see data from past years, and see that it basically never goes to zero

@KatjaGrace nice profit, congrats!

The report from today is already at 60, so I'm resolving this market YES

13 weeks to go, current value is 58.6, so it needs to be below 0.11 on average for each remaining week. Last week was 0.3 and look at the trend... I wouldn't be surprised if no more cases (or rounded to 0) are reported next week or the week after. This shouldn't be at 94%

There is a lot of time left and this will be a very atypical season for sure, but the season seems to be dying out: there were only 0.8 per 100K reported in the week ending Jan 14 and the cumulative is still at 56.7. There is a chance that there is a late winter wave coming up, but I don't think this should be at over 98%

@egroj I've also heard that tests for influenza had ran out last month, and so a lot of influenza cases were being clinically diagnosed (without a test) but that tests are available right now. I think that there is a good chance that a lot of the peak of the wave last month was wrong diagnoses of RSV, rhinoviruses and coronaviruses other than COVID.

Related:

Vox says it looks unusually bad, but I don't immediately see how their link supports the comparison to other years:

"more than five times as many people have been hospitalized for the flu so far this season than at the same point in any of the last 10 years."

Also from there, "Additionally, more than five times as many people have been hospitalized for the flu so far this season than at the same point in any of the last 10 years."

Er, those were the same; actually also from there: "As of November 5, nearly 14,000 positive flu tests had been reported, as shown in the orange line on the below chart. That’s more than 12 times the number reported at the same time in 2019 (shown in the black line)."

@KatjaGrace It has to be noticeable. What makes you think it won’t be?

@NicoDelon I think it will be, I just bought 'no' ages ago, and 90% sounds reasonable, so no reason to sell it (if I understand how the market works).

@KatjaGrace Ah I see. Thanks.