Groundhog Day "is a popular North American tradition observed in the United States and Canada on February 2. It derives from the Pennsylvania Dutch superstition that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day and sees its shadow due to clear weather, it will retreat to its den, and winter will go on for six more weeks; if it does not see its shadow because of cloudiness, spring will arrive early." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day)
Resolves YES if the official groundhog from Punxsutawney, PA (Punxsutawney Phil) sees its shadow on February 2, 2024: https://www.visitpa.com/live-stream-phils-prediction
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,487 | |
| 2 | Ṁ888 | |
| 3 | Ṁ503 | |
| 4 | Ṁ345 | |
| 5 | Ṁ280 |
@benshindel I was betting on the historic rate at the beginning and a month before started checking the weather forecast, it always looked like it was rainy and cloudy, so I started selling my big YES position. Even then I ended up losing M$71 here. I'm already 1200 in for YES for next year
@JordanSchneider that's quite impressive. This market is just about seeing its shadow. I just did a market for whether the prediction for 2023 will be right:
@JordanSchneider though maybe getting lower over time https://www.groundhog.org/Files/Admin/history/UpdatedGroundhog_Day_Predictions.pdf