Will the groundhog see its shadow on Groundhog's Day 2025?
14
130Ṁ5628
resolved Feb 3
Resolved
YES

Groundhog Day "is a popular North American tradition observed in the United States and Canada on February 2. It derives from the Pennsylvania Dutch superstition that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day and sees its shadow due to clear weather, it will retreat to its den, and winter will go on for six more weeks; if it does not see its shadow because of cloudiness, spring will arrive early." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day)

Resolves YES if the official groundhog from Punxsutawney, PA (Punxsutawney Phil) sees its shadow on February 2, 2025: https://www.visitpa.com/live-stream-phils-prediction

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It's interesting that this is trading at 50%. Last year, this traded at a very high number and remained that way, well against the 1/6 chance of seeing an early Spring, suggesting that someone had inside information.

Nice scam, you got me.

predictedYES

@Herc oh you thought that it was for this year? sorry! I just closed a market for this year and thought about making one for next year before I forget

predictedNO

@egroj I don't believe you

predictedNO

@egroj Apologies for the accusation I was misunderstanding something. I thought for sure you were trying to trap someone, upon reflection I realize it's more likely not the case. Sorry again.

predictedYES

@Herc no worries!, sorry again that you bid by mistake. Cheers!

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