Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ586
2035
32%
chance

Eric Drexler predicts that we will eventually develop nanotechnolgy that can assemble arbitrary (physically permitted) structures out of raw materials by physically manipulating the arrangement of individual atoms. Drexler imagines a "first generation" of nanotechnology based on protein engineering could be used to develop "second generation" nanotechnology vastly more capable and programmable than biological molecular assemblers. Systems like AlphaFold are beginning to hint at the possibility of using near-future powerful AI systems to design the first generation of molecular nanotechnology. This particular chain of development is not required for the question to resolve YES, merely the resulting ability to directly and generally manipulate matter at the atomic scale. I can provide additional qualifications as requested.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

What does "generally manipulate matter at the atomic scale" mean?

@MalachiteEagle If you specify a particular physically permitted configuration of atoms, it can be built.

Not using chemistry or optical tweezers, but mechanosynthesis that can place enough atoms in precise configurations to build objects meaningful at human scales (not just moving around five gold atoms or whatever).

@eccentricity I think there are combinations of atoms that are very hard to construct with nanomachines, and likely require much larger systems

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules