Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
10
80
แน€210
2035
15%
chance

Eric Drexler predicts that we will eventually develop nanotechnolgy that can assemble arbitrary (physically permitted) structures out of raw materials by physically manipulating the arrangement of individual atoms. Drexler imagines a "first generation" of nanotechnology based on protein engineering could be used to develop "second generation" nanotechnology vastly more capable and programmable than biological molecular assemblers. Systems like AlphaFold are beginning to hint at the possibility of using near-future powerful AI systems to design the first generation of molecular nanotechnology. This particular chain of development is not required for the question to resolve YES, merely the resulting ability to directly and generally manipulate matter at the atomic scale. I can provide additional qualifications as requested.

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