After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?
Mini
9
395
2070
0.9%
less than one day
1.8%
1-7 days
1.4%
8-31 days
1.4%
32-90 days
1.4%
91-180 days
38%
181-365 days
16%
366-730 days
38%
731+ days
1.4%
Other


Eric Drexler predicts that nanotechnology can be used to assemble arbitrary physically permitted structures to atomic specifications. The development of a such general assembler has significant implications for various fields, including materials science, manufacturing, medicine, and computing. Despite the potential benefits, developing molecular assemblers presents numerous scientific and technical challenges. Some of these challenges include precise control of atomic and molecular assembly, error-correction mechanisms, energy and resource management, and integration of functional components.


Powerful artificial intelligence systems have the potential to make vital contributions to the design and implementation of the first generation of molecular nanotechnology.

A successful demonstration of a general assembler must be accompanied by:

A publicly accessible report or documentation describing the assembler, its structure, and its components.

Independent validation of the results by at least two separate entities with expertise in nanotechnology, molecular manufacturing, or related fields. These entities can be research groups, institutions, or companies.​

"Superintelligent AI" is defined for the purpose of this question as an AI which can perform any cognitive task humans can perform as well or superior to the best humans in their domain.

​This question resolves as the number of days elapsed after a superintelligent AI came into existence and the first development of a general assembler, according to widespread media and historical consensus. If a molecular assembler is not physically possible or is created before an ASI, this question will resolve as Other.

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