This question is a proxy for "which is better, Comma.ai or Tesla?" or which one I'll prefer to get.
FAQ
1. If you're reading a book you're obviously not driving?
True fact. What I mean is, what company will let me (safely, see next FAQ item) read a book while sitting in the driver's seat of a private car, being the sole human in charge of the car.
2. Technically you can do this in a Yugo?
It has to be safe to do! Hacking the self-driving tech to bypass the "is the driver watching the road" mechanism also doesn't count. So also legal, though if the law were to fall blatantly behind what's clearly safe, we can talk about that.
3. What about Waymo?
Yes, Waymo is miles ahead here and would totally win if they offered their tech for private cars.
4. What if the answer is neither?
The market just stays open until one or the other can do this.
5. What if they both achieve this simultaneously?
[Placeholder for discussion in the comments if it seems likely enough to bother. Maybe resolve-to-PROB at 50%?]
6. What if it's otherwise ambiguous?
[Placeholder. Could also resolve-to-PROB.]
1,000
3.00@traders I added an FAQ to this and also created a more general version of the market: https://manifold.markets/dreev/which-company-will-let-me-read-a-bo
@dreev I would understand your resolution plans without looking at the comments if you set to 2099, but I think I would be a little surprised by the "keep extending" thing. Is there a cost to a far resolution date?
@MrMagnolia I don't think so! When I made this market I think I was naively imagining that we'd know the answer within a year [and a half, I guess]. Setting an end date could be viewed as setting an alarm clock, reminding us to revisit the market and see if it's resolvable?
@dreev Hm good point. My guess is traders will ping you when resolution time comes around, but not sure
@MrMagnolia Manifold itself bugs me when we hit the close date. It just did so now and I pushed it out to the end of 2023. Again, people should let me know if this is annoying and I should just set it to 2099.