
This is a generalization of the following market:
https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-commaai-let-me-read-a-book-whi#
It can resolve early. Note that Waymo is there technology-wise, but they'd have to make their tech available in private cars.
Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Threshold Definition: The criteria for what counts is defined by the guidelines on this market.
Current Signal: That market currently indicates an 86% chance that all options resolving for this event in 2025 will resolve NO.
@traders See https://manifold.markets/dreev/when-will-i-be-able-to-read-a-book for the threshold for what counts. That market is currently saying there's an 86% chance that all of the options here, for this happening in 2025, resolve NO.
Oops, should I not have added an "other" option? If people bet on that because they think, say, Ford is going to deliver on this, and then I add an explicit Ford option, that would be unfair, right? Is it too late now, and we're stuck with betting among these 4 specific companies plus "other"?
PS: I'm presuming the answer is yes, and that I can't add new options now.