Which company will let me read a book while driving in a private car in 2025?
15
1.1kṀ3155
2026
14%
Tesla
12%
[Other]
10%
Comma.ai
7%
Toyota
5%
Waymo

This is a generalization of the following market:

https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-commaai-let-me-read-a-book-whi#

It can resolve early. Note that Waymo is there technology-wise, but they'd have to make their tech available in private cars.

  • Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

    • Threshold Definition: The criteria for what counts is defined by the guidelines on this market.

    • Current Signal: That market currently indicates an 86% chance that all options resolving for this event in 2025 will resolve NO.

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@traders See https://manifold.markets/dreev/when-will-i-be-able-to-read-a-book for the threshold for what counts. That market is currently saying there's an 86% chance that all of the options here, for this happening in 2025, resolve NO.

When will I be able to read a book while driving a private car?
Disclosure: I intend to bet in this market myself. Ask clarifying questions before trading. FAQ 1. If you're reading a book you're obviously not driving? True fact. What I mean is, when can I (safely, see next FAQ item) read a book while sitting in the driver's seat of a private car, being the sole human in charge of the car. 2. Technically you can do this in a Yugo? It has to be safe to do! Hacking the self-driving tech to bypass the "is the driver watching the road" mechanism also doesn't count. So also legal, though if the law were to fall blatantly behind what's clearly safe, we can talk about that. 3. What about Waymo? Yes, Waymo is (33 million) miles ahead here but won't count until they offer their tech for private cars. 4. Isn't Tesla basically there? Tesla has been making progress but as of early 2025, if you read a book in the driver's seat of a Tesla it's pretty much a matter of time before it kills you. 5. What about Mercedes's offering? As of early 2025, Mercedes offers SAE level 3 on certain highways in California and Nevada when there's a traffic jam keeping the speeds below 60kph / 40mph, with another car to follow, in daylight in good weather with clear lane markings etc. That's a great start but for this market we need to be closer to SAE level 4 (like Waymo). Plus much fewer restrictions. (I'll add FAQ items for each candidate restriction after discussing them in the comments.) Note that I'm betting in this market myself while committing to make the resolution fair. I'll be transparent about my reasoning and if there are good-faith objections, I'll hear them out, we'll discuss, and I'll outsource the final decision if needed. Note the evolving FAQ. The expectation is that bettors ask clarifying questions before betting, to minimize the chances of it coming down to a judgment call. Related Markets https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-commaai-let-me-read-a-book-whi https://manifold.markets/dreev/which-company-will-let-me-read-a-bo https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-portland-have-fully-selfdrivin https://manifold.markets/dreev/in-what-year-will-we-have-agi Scratch area for auto-generated AI updates Don't believe what magically appears down here; I'll add clarifications to the FAQ. Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ubiquity Requirement: The safe reading function must be available in a broad range of driving situations rather than in narrowly limited scenarios (e.g., only on highways with heavy traffic). The intent is that the technology should enable reading during most car trips, not just under specific or restricted conditions. Cases where the technology works on only about half of US highways or depends on additional conditions (like requiring another car to follow) would not meet the spirit of the question.

Oops, should I not have added an "other" option? If people bet on that because they think, say, Ford is going to deliver on this, and then I add an explicit Ford option, that would be unfair, right? Is it too late now, and we're stuck with betting among these 4 specific companies plus "other"?

PS: I'm presuming the answer is yes, and that I can't add new options now.

Is this a question of what is permissible or what is possible?

Permissibility would probably have an overlay of vehicle code/law, in which case, this question may make more sense of what is possible, but strictly speaking it is already something that is possible, although perhapse inadvisable.

I'm thinking mostly in terms of permissibility. The spirit of the question is which company will let me actually do this for real in a car I own or could own.

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