I'm reading about the Rabbit R1 and the Humane Pin, which seem to be like the ChatGPT smartphone app but with hooks into all your other apps and accounts so it can, like, magically order Ubers or book flights for you or whatever, via just talking to it. Adept.ai may be trying something similar.

I'm getting a lot of Google Glass vibes from these demos. (See my 2013 review -- pretty nostalgic!)

It's also reminding me of this skeptical 10-year prediction I made about voice interfaces in 2011:

Negative prediction: Siri is a fad!

That’s overstating it, of course. It will get better and become more common and more useful, but that’s it. I predict no progress on having a reasonable natural language conversation with a computer. Today’s Siri commercials will oversell even the voice interfaces of 2021. (I was similarly a bit down on IBM’s Watson earlier in 2011.)

And my verdict on the state of the art in 2021 (written early 2022):

True. This one is debatable, I suppose, but here’s my argument. The progress on voice interfaces since the introduction of Siri has been extremely incremental, just as I predicted. I admit Alexa is super useful, but only for a handful of specific tasks (playing songs, setting kitchen timers, answering arithmetic problems or googling things relevant to out-loud conversation happening among humans). There’s never any useful back-and-forth and if you watch one of the early ads and then try asking similar things, much of the time it falls on its face, even now.

But it's believable to me that LLMs are about to finally get us to the level of 2011 Siri commercials!

Now how to operationalize that for a prediction market?

So far I think the spirit of the question I'm aiming for is about a natural, human-like back-and-forth dialog for getting the computer to take actions for you in the real world. What a naive viewer would've inferred from the 2011 Siri commercials. (I know in retrospect those commercials weren't technically showing things that weren't technically possible, but, c'mon.)

If we don't find a way to pin this down better then I'll resolve according to my judgment and not trade in this market myself.

Here's what I have tentatively so far:

Will I personally use a back-and-forth human-like voice interface to cause actions to be taken (eg, ordering taxis, sending emails -- not just answering questions) on a daily basis (more than 1x per day on average) by the end of 2024?

Ideally I'd decouple this from my own choices so that the prediction is purely about the evolution of the technology. Ask questions before trading and we'll put together an FAQ with clarifications!