Reasons to bet YES
I'm locked in
Anticipated life/work variance that has caused past fall-offs is low
I will be betting bigly on YES myself
Positive early trend that is usually predictive
The required rate of weight loss (!0.75kg/week) is not that aggressive
If I'm close towards the end I will cheat to win (stop creatine, low carb etc)
This market is probably good for accountability
Reasons to bet NO
I have never lost more than 4kg in any amount of time in the past
Work variance/stress is probably low but still unknowable and is highly correlated with non-compliance
I need to basically be perfect for 6 weeks which has never happened
You have a lot of mana and want to light it on fire for a good cause
I might burn out after the novelty fades
FYI this will resolve based on a one-day measurement and not the weekly average. If i stop logging for some reason i will resolve based on the last available weight if it's <5 days from March 1st or N/A if more than that
Update 2026-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If necessary to achieve the target weight, the creator will use extreme short-term methods (such as a 24-hour fast or hard run) to reach 89.5kg and resolve YES.
1,000seems like the weight loss gods decided to punish my hubris because suddenly my diet is harder than ever, scale has stalled and i'm white knuckling everything. I'm still only ~1kg away so i'm not panicking yet. i will probably get to 89.4 by normal means, eventually, but if shit hits the fan i will brute force one 24h fast or hard run to resolve YES
@diadematus 1 kg away and 11 days to go, should be doable especially if you're willing to go to those lengths
At the start of Feb I am at 92.4kg, with a low of 91.9 in the preceding week, so i need to lose slightly less than 3kg in 4 weeks to win the bet. The novelty has worn off and my compliance has dropped a bit, but I would be seriously shocked if this market did not resolve YES