Reasons to bet YES
I'm locked in
Anticipated life/work variance that has caused past fall-offs is low
I will be betting bigly on YES myself
Positive early trend that is usually predictive
The required rate of weight loss (!0.75kg/week) is not that aggressive
If I'm close towards the end I will cheat to win (stop creatine, low carb etc)
This market is probably good for accountability
Reasons to bet NO
I have never lost more than 4kg in any amount of time in the past
Work variance/stress is probably low but still unknowable and is highly correlated with non-compliance
I need to basically be perfect for 6 weeks which has never happened
You have a lot of mana and want to light it on fire for a good cause
I might burn out after the novelty fades
FYI this will resolve based on a one-day measurement and not the weekly average. If i stop logging for some reason i will resolve based on the last available weight if it's <5 days from March 1st or N/A if more than that
1,000At the start of Feb I am at 92.4kg, with a low of 91.9 in the preceding week, so i need to lose slightly less than 3kg in 4 weeks to win the bet. The novelty has worn off and my compliance has dropped a bit, but I would be seriously shocked if this market did not resolve YES