Reasons to bet YES
I'm locked in
Anticipated life/work variance that has caused past fall-offs is low
I will be betting bigly on YES myself
Positive early trend that is usually predictive
The required rate of weight loss (!0.75kg/week) is not that aggressive
If I'm close towards the end I will cheat to win (stop creatine, low carb etc)
This market is probably good for accountability
Reasons to bet NO
I have never lost more than 4kg in any amount of time in the past
Work variance/stress is probably low but still unknowable and is highly correlated with non-compliance
I need to basically be perfect for 6 weeks which has never happened
You have a lot of mana and want to light it on fire for a good cause
I might burn out after the novelty fades
FYI this will resolve based on a one-day measurement and not the weekly average. If i stop logging for some reason i will resolve based on the last available weight if it's <5 days from March 1st or N/A if more than that
Update 2026-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If necessary to achieve the target weight, the creator will use extreme short-term methods (such as a 24-hour fast or hard run) to reach 89.5kg and resolve YES.
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@MachiNi lol, unseemly shit. same way i have lost .7kg in the past? are you coping about your impending L or actually asking?
@MachiNi i'm still triggered so here's some more data for you😘. dont make contrarian bets and act surprised when you lose
@diadematus Im asking you because you seemed to have reached a plateau. I’m genuinely curious. But now since you’re reacting like a dick I’m not sure I should believe you.
@diadematus I asked a fair question. Why do you have to be a dick about it? My loss is insignificant and irrelevant. I would ask the same question if I were a YES holder.
@MachiNi medically, +/-1kg fluctuations in a day for an individual around 90kg are normal - depends on many factors like what you recently ate, time of day the weight was measured, before/after going to the bathroom, water weight loss after intense exercise, etc.
I am around the same weight as @diadematus and these are normal fluctuations.
@Hakari you're taking him at his word, but he obviously knows better since he's active in a lot of fitness/athletics markets. his question was accusatory, not curious. i flip flopped around +/- 0.5kg multiple times and he was content to merely make ongoing NO bets, up until the market resolution was close. garden variety concern troll.
@diadematus you are the asshole in the conversation unfortunately, even if machini is actually subtly implying you cheated, your first reply has countered it well enough. All the followups made it look worse on you
@SavioMak should i be caring how 'it looks'? i don't. i'm not going to entertain some bad faith troll to look civil
@diadematus if you have previously interacted with them and had a prior that they are acting in bad faith, sure. But this conversation alone isn't remotely that bad. A little bit accusatory? sure. But it is totally within my own tolerance of a normal person who is maybe a bit motivated from having a loss. Honestly it just seem like you read the tone incorrectly and then get overly angry about it.
@SavioMak easy to say when it's not your integrity getting questioned under the guise of just asking questions... Mr. Machiavelli here has been trading in some of my fitness/weight loss markets for at least 2 years. There is almost 0.0% chance he is confused about weight fluctuations, water weight or whooshes or whatever. So...yeah, i'm pretty fine dismissing him out of hand
seems like the weight loss gods decided to punish my hubris because suddenly my diet is harder than ever, scale has stalled and i'm white knuckling everything. I'm still only ~1kg away so i'm not panicking yet. i will probably get to 89.4 by normal means, eventually, but if shit hits the fan i will brute force one 24h fast or hard run to resolve YES
@diadematus 1 kg away and 11 days to go, should be doable especially if you're willing to go to those lengths
At the start of Feb I am at 92.4kg, with a low of 91.9 in the preceding week, so i need to lose slightly less than 3kg in 4 weeks to win the bet. The novelty has worn off and my compliance has dropped a bit, but I would be seriously shocked if this market did not resolve YES