I have been running thrice a week more or less consistently and decided to sign up for a half marathon on a whim. This would be my first half marathon ever, and I plan to follow an adapted "Less is More" training plan inspired by @CrissmanLoomis

My current estimate for a half marathon is 1:59 from my Garmin watch and around 2:05 from various internet calculators. A 1h 54 mins (5:24/km) target seems both quite doable to me, but challenging enough to require serious effort. The longest I've ever run is 12.1km one week ago, and have run 8 runs above 10k, ever (all within the last year). I ran a 10k in the same race last year with a time of 57:57 which i later lowered to 57:00 (5:42/km). My 5k PB is 26:15 (5:15/km).

Factors for:

• I'm quite motivated and naturally enjoy running

• Have been running fairly consistently to start the year so I have a good base of mileage

• I'm starting from a low base so it's possible i have easy gains with a more structured plan. I never do consistent tempo or speed runs for example

• I'm 92kg now, and expect to lose some weight by July which should improve my running economy

Factors against:

• goal is probably too aggressive given my running history

• Not very conscientious in general and dislike structured routines

• My motivation is high right now but may wane (<15% chance)

• Nagging knee injury that I plan to visit a physio for

• 92kg - no guarantee I won't gain weight by race time

The marathon is in 110 days. I will sign up later today and begin my 3 day a week training plan on Wednesday, and share a running log

Resolution Criteria:

YES:
I successfully run the half marathon and finish in a time of 1 hours 54 mins or less.

NO:
- I fail to participate in the half marathon for personal or injury reasons. I don't plan to not run unless the situation is truly unavoidable
- I participate but don't finish in less than 1:54 . If the race is delayed by a maximum of 1 more month, I will extend the deadline and resolve the question normally.

N/A:
If the race is delayed for more than 1 month from the original date or canceled for whatever reason.

I will only be betting YES here, and not selling but my YES bets will be calibrated to my confidence over time