What will be my pace if I complete the San Francisco Half-Marathon?
12
10kṀ13k
Jul 28
9.28 minutes/mile
expected
90%
Above 8
84%
Above 8.5
80%
Above 9
70%
Above 9.5
33%
Above 10
18%
Above 11
16%
Above 12

My roommates roped me into running the SF half-marathon. The most I've run at one time is about 5 miles.

The race is in 9 weeks. I'll try to do the recommended training for the most part. Today I ran 3.77 miles in 45 minutes, which is kinda slow (~12:00/mi).

Market is inspired by Austin's: https://manifold.markets/rachel/will-austin-finish-his-half-maratho
His pace is so good, it would be a miracle if I could beat it.

  • Update 2025-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that if they do not complete the run, the market will resolve to N/A.

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