Question
On April 9th 2026, what will the 7-day moving average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Resolution Criteria
Let x be the 7-day moving average ships passing on through the Strait of Hormuz on April 9th 2026. Using IMF PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the inequality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise.
If the data are not available by end of day April 30th, I will resolve each market to NA.
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Shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait
Update 2026-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 7-day moving average on April 9th will be calculated across April 3–9 inclusive, as confirmed from the IMF PortWatch data file.
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@traders, the market will close soon. I will resolve the market as soon as IMF is updated. I will try to check each day, but feel free to ping me if you notice before I do.
Here is a new market for next week in case you are interested.
https://manifold.markets/dfish/on-april-16th-2026-what-will-the-7d?r=ZGZpc2g
@Hakari I will use the 7-day moving average reported on April 9th. I downloaded the file and confirmed that value will be calculated across April 3-9 inclusive.
@4fa, you are right. : 😂 It is technically an average.
I used the phrase "moving average" loosely to point people to the correct series label in the plot on the IMF page.