closes Apr 2
Will MrGirl's "investigation" conclude that Destiny is a serial sexual abuser?
5%
chance

If the line is blurry on the conclusion, I'll cancel the market returning everyone's investment.

Close date updated to 2023-02-01 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2023-04-01 11:59 pm

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Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting YES at 6%

"Unequal sexual relationships: In the last decade Destiny has formed dozens of sexual relationships"

"In 2020 Destiny himself explained why using your platform for sex with smaller creators is unethical"

Thats a statement right there claiming sexual abuse of dozens of streamers.

If the criteria is "verbatim says 'sexual abuse' in the article" then i guess its a NO.

PhilWheatley avatar
Philis predicting NO at 6%

@Firechyld in neither of those sentences does he claim abuse. You are just inferring it.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 6%

@Firechyld This is stretching realllllllly hard imo.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting YES at 5%

@johnleoks its really not a stretch. Its clear thats what Mr. Girl is implying. But, like I said, if the parameters are he has to state that exactly then the market should resolve NO.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting YES at 5%

@PhilWheatley thats exactly what the article was meant to convey. He never said it bc he knows its bullshit and there is no proof.

PhilWheatley avatar
Philis predicting NO at 5%

@Firechyld the thing is max has stated himself the article moved away from sexual abuse so that's not really true what you are saying

johnleoks avatar
johnleokssold Ṁ1,239 of YES

Mr. Girl doesn't come close to concluding that Destiny is a "serial sexual abuser". Almost no "victim" in the article called him a sexual abuser, let alone Max himself concluding that Destiny is a SERIAL one. This can only resolve as NO. It's super clear cut.

Awesometheory avatar
Awesometheoryis predicting NO at 22%

@johnleoks Out here switching teams once the article is released. Shameless behaviour

PhilWheatley avatar
Philis predicting NO at 6%

@johnleoks scummy behavior.

Awesometheory avatar
Awesometheoryis predicting NO at 22%

Yea, this is a clear no.

The article references situations which Max argues have been presented as possible abuse, some sexual, but it was never widespread and prevalent enough to call “serial”.

In fact, very few of the accusations were sexual in nature at all, most were argued emotional manipulation and power dynamic abuses.

I can’t see a single way someone could see this article as Max claiming Destiny to be a “serial sex abuser” lol

Awesometheory avatar
Awesometheoryis predicting NO at 22%

@Awesometheory

I think this is supported by the fact this market has literally dropped to 10% lol - and will continue to fall

Raze avatar
Razeis predicting YES at 22%

@Awesometheory The market fell because one major yes stakeholder sold a ton, don't think that constitutes a majority opinion.

Raze avatar
Razebought Ṁ100 of YES

Arguing for the yes position: while it doesn't appear Max conclusively states "yes steven is a serial sexual abuser," he does back up and support people in the article who claim he is committing serial sexual abuse.

This market should either resolve to yes or N/A

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting YES at 6%

@Raze I agree he all but says it in these two quotes. "Dozens" of women would make it serial abuse.

"Unequal sexual relationships: In the last decade Destiny has formed dozens of sexual relationships"

"In 2020 Destiny himself explained why using your platform for sex with smaller creators is unethical"

Defghi19 avatar
Defghi19is predicting YES at 36%
johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting YES at 30%
Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ100 of YES

Attention all no buyers: you are very smart! You are loved! Sell to my orders!! Sell down to 11%!!

(It’s free money, I am never right)

Resolution avatar
Middlewbought Ṁ244 of NO

@Gen Could you buy some more? I want free money please 🙏🙏🙏

Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ100 of YES

How is this not higher? No way he doesn’t say it, regardless of the truth

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 14%

70+ pages? He’ll say it for sure. Maybe in the intro even

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 26%

@Gen The title might actually include, “destiny the sexual abuser”

Sell to me asap

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

For those interested in the object-level question:

Agh avatar
Aghis predicting NO at 38%
SaiVazquez avatar
Sai Vazquezis predicting NO at 50%

This will never end, we will be waiting forever

superxad avatar
superxadis predicting NO at 53%

BRO, JUST RESOLVE THE MARKET

DavidDavidson avatar
David Davidsonis predicting NO at 55%

@superxad The investigation hasn't concluded yet.

Canechurch avatar
Canechurchbought Ṁ100 of YES

Max bought 10 shares of yes one day ago. This is free money.

DavidDavidson avatar
David Davidsonis predicting NO at 49%
Canechurch avatar
Canechurchis predicting YES at 49%

@DavidDavidson Ah big rip.

LilSnugglyMane avatar
Lil Snuggly Maneis predicting YES at 46%

do people think "conclude" means "prove"?

LLLLLL avatar
L Spamis predicting NO at 27%

@LilSnugglyMane no

I don't think Mr. Girl will straight up say Destiny is a serial sexual abuser. The Ana stuff is probably the worst thing his investigation is going to find, and iirc he hasn't called that sexual abuse. imo it will probably be a blurry line, where he says it's emotional abuse and sexual misconduct but not really sexual abuse.

Although tbf I lost a lot of money on the 'Will Mr. Girl return to stream before Nov 12th" market, so Max unexpectedly escalating the claims isn't unprecedented.

MattAnderson avatar
Matt Andersonbought Ṁ100 of YES

This being at 41% is pure cope by Mr girl supporters

DavidDavidson avatar
David Davidsonis predicting NO at 45%

@MattAnderson In my case its because of the severe lack of evidence.

Also did they get rid of tips?

MattAnderson avatar
Matt Andersonis predicting YES at 15%

@DavidDavidson That's my point though. He's so set on taking down Steve it doesn't matter if there is or not he'll conclude it anyway.

HarrySeaton avatar
Harry Seatonis predicting NO at 44%

@MattAnderson naw i think he is gonna have to take the L and just call it emotional abuse, which i dont agree with even that btw.

SlurmSoda avatar
SlurmSodabought Ṁ200 of YES

Most obvious choice of my life

SmithJohn avatar
Smith Johnbought Ṁ96 of NO

1,113 SHARES ON NO KEEP IT COMING STEPHEN REPAIR THE BRIDGE

DavidDavidson avatar
David Davidsonis predicting NO at 39%

@SmithJohn It'll probably resolve no, but the bridge is likely never getting repaired.

Agh avatar
Aghis predicting YES at 52%

Mrgirl is his name.

Hyperbole is his game.

LLLLLL avatar
L Spamis predicting NO at 43%

@destiny If MrGirl does not conclude his investigation before Jan 1st 2023, will this market be closed? And if so, how would it be resolved?

old_chicken avatar
Old Chickenbought Ṁ40 of YES

No shit

LLLLLL avatar
L Spamis predicting NO at 36%

Do you y'all think it will be a blurry conclusion?

https://manifold.markets/LLLLLL/will-the-will-mrgirls-investigation

gee avatar
Gee

@LLLLLL Genius

SmithJohn avatar
Smith Johnbought Ṁ10 of NO

all in no baby

NickMayer avatar
Nick Mayeris predicting NO at 45%

I'm all in there's literally no way

WOOF avatar
Down badis predicting YES at 51%

Mr girl is already calling it sexual misconduct, can’t convince him that it’s not abusive. Yes all the way. He’s on a mission.

Smeth avatar
Smethbought Ṁ102 of NO

@WOOF Wait a damn second. For the sake of the bet, it should be made clear if misconduct = abuse. I think misconduct is not abuse in a legal sense. In a psychological sense it can be. How are we determining this?

WOOF avatar
Down badis predicting YES at 44%

@Smeth I don't think any of this is in the legal sense

Smeth avatar
Smethis predicting NO at 44%

@WOOF There is a difference between calling someone "abusive" and calling them an "abuser." This is what justifies the legal distinction, intent being the most important factor. From the perspective that intent is critical, misconduct implies someone is abusive, not an abuser... From a psychological perspective intent does not matter, because we are describing behaviors however they manifest. I would argue that the majority of people do NOT engage within this psychological framework, but more of an empirical framework, and law is the standard there.

Smeth avatar
Smethis predicting NO at 44%

@WOOF I just realized that I don't need to stake out this distinction, because the stock reads "sexual abuser" and I am confident that my no stocks will win regardless of this distinction.

WOOF avatar
Down badis predicting YES at 44%

@Smeth I think you're over thinking this, this is MrGirl, not law enforcement, but now you got me over thinking it. @destiny can we get a ruling? is this in regards to the legal sense? like is destiny is forcing himself on others without out consent (sexual assault) or is this in regards to MrGirl thinking Destiny uses his position as a streamer to exploit his orbiters sexually?

Smeth avatar
Smethis predicting NO at 44%

@WOOF https://www.justia.com/injury/sexual-abuse/

sexual abuse, not assault.

Still I actually don't think the distinction will matter for the sake of my bet, and I'm willing to give up on it, but maybe for others it matters.

WOOF avatar
Down badis predicting YES at 44%

@Smeth Read what you linked.

Smeth avatar
Smethis predicting NO at 44%

@WOOF It includes coercion and sexual harassment as part of it, while sexual assault does not. I am betting that mrgirl won't find any instances of coercion or harassment.

WOOF avatar
Down badis predicting YES at 44%

@Smeth coercion is what he is accusing destiny of and already believes that at least 1 person was coerced.

Smeth avatar
Smethis predicting NO at 44%

@WOOF I am betting that mrgirl won't find any instances of coercion or harassment.

JaimeSantos avatar
Jaime Santosis predicting NO at 66%

Why the fuck does this stock keep going up?

WOOF avatar
Down badis predicting YES at 52%

@JaimeSantos MrGirl is the one conducting the investigation and he’s approaching it as though Destiny is guilty. Nothing will change his mind

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Will MrGirl's "investigation" conclude that Destiny is a serial sexual abuser?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition