MANIFOLD
Which movies will earn more than $250M at the 2026 US Box Office?
12
Ṁ450Ṁ933
resolved Feb 18
ResolvedN/A
17%
Avengers: Doomsday
0.3%
Disclosure Day
2%
Dune: Messiah
0.3%
Hexed
0.3%
Hoppers
0.3%
Jumanji Last Level
0.3%
Michael
14%
Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)
0.3%
Moana (live action)
0.3%
Project Hail Mary
27%
Spiderman Brand New Day
0.3%
Supergirl
0.6%
The Devil Wears Prada 2
0.3%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
5%
The Mandalorian and Grogu
13%
The Odyssey
13%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
5%
Toy Story 5

Resolution criteria

Each answer resolves YES if that film's domestic (US+Canada) box office gross exceeds $250M by the end of 2026.

Resolution source: Box Office Mojo; if unavailable or clearly erroneous, The Numbers will serve as backup.

Films that do not open domestically in 2026 resolve NO.

Background

The domestic box office is forecasted to hit $9 billion in 2026, though many of the movie business's biggest franchises are showing signs of oversaturation or fatigue. Family films and video game adaptations proved irresistible to audiences in 2025, with "A Minecraft Movie," "Lilo & Stitch," and "Zootopia 2" being the three highest-grossing Hollywood productions.

2026 features several major tentpoles: The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping releases November 20, 2026, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is inspired by the Nintendo Wii title, and Avengers: Doomsday is scheduled for December 18, 2026. Toy Story 5 confronts the reality that children would rather play with screens than dolls, and Woody and Buzz needn't worry about box office grosses.

Considerations

Reaching $250M domestically is a significant threshold—only major franchises and event films typically achieve this.

This description was generated by AI.

Market context
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@creator the resolution for all answers in this market must sum to 1. I assume you intended this to be an independent (set) market so that multiple can resolve YES? You can N/A this and recreate it

bought Ṁ10 YES

I think this may be the wrong type of market

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