This market resolves YES if all of the following occur before January 1, 2046:

1. A collision between two objects in Low Earth Orbit (below 2,000 km altitude) produces 500 or more newly tracked debris objects, as reported by US Space Command or ESA's Space Debris Office.

2. Within 24 months of that collision, at least one additional unplanned satellite or debris collision is formally attributed — by a government space agency or peer-reviewed publication — to debris generated by the triggering event.

3. A major space agency (NASA, ESA, JAXA, or Roscosmos) or the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs publicly states that the cascade poses an ongoing uncontrolled risk to that orbital shell.

All three criteria must be met. A single large collision with no follow-on cascade does not resolve YES.

Resolves NO if none of the above occurs before January 1, 2046.

Resolves N/A if Manifold closes before resolution.