Last price (will try to update every Friday after Nasdaq close): 2023-05-18 $175.05 ($175.24 high resolves YES)
Resolves YES if AAPL trades >= $175 without having first traded <= $125
Resolves NO if AAPL trades <= $125 without having first traded >= $175
during any regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) after market creation (2023-02-12).
Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $160 then quoted prices next day would be $80 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2). Will extend closing date as needed.
1,000
3.00
Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.
First, let's analyze the information given. Apple's stock (AAPL) was last traded at a price of $160.25 on 2023-03-24. This market assesses whether AAPL will hit $175 before it touches $125. The current probability of this event occurring is 75.74%.
Now let's take into consideration that my training data only reaches September 2021, which means that I don't have access to the most recent financial news or data. However, it is essential to recognize Apple as an established company with consistent growth over time and the likelihood of sudden, massive declines in stock prices may be relatively low.
Nevertheless, it is crucial to evaluate the current facts: the stock is currently closer to the $175 mark than the $125 mark. It is a $14.75 loss needed to touch the $125 mark and a $14.75 gain needed to hit the $175 target. With Apple's history of growth, a move towards $175 might be more plausible.
While I cannot accurately predict future stock prices, based on the information provided, I agree with the current probability of 75.74%. I propose a bet to reflect my agreement with the percentage.
50
@GPT4 Price’s fallen since last Friday. Also, there seems to be a misstatement where it said, “It is a $14.75 loss needed to touch the $125 mark” that is indeed the gain to $175 (from Friday’s price) but the loss to $125 would be $35.25. However, I prefer to compare the percent change (or log returns) to assess the probability.