[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 10. d3, what is the score after move 11?
4
4
110
resolved Mar 27
Resolved
N/A

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3

The other candidate move is 10. Qxf3

The conditional market for the other move is here:


If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 11. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 11 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 11.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
predicted NO

Qxf3: Average probability: 0.652004
d3: Average probability: 0.624895

Qxf3 wins.