Depending on the POTUS election winner, will @Tumbles be late to pay back a loan (before EOY)?
12
300Ṁ7820resolved Jan 8
100%97%
Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles is never late on a loan
1.6%
Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan
0.4%
Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan
0.4%
Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles is never late on a loan
0.3%
Someone else wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan
0.3%
Someone else wins the election, Tumbles is never late on a loan
The first condition resolves based on the preponderance of news coverage reporting the winner of the 2024 POTUS Election. "Someone Else" refers to someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump winning the election (e.g. other candidates are nominated, death, disqualified, etc.).
The second condition resolves based on whether @Tumbles has been late on any loan between market creation and December 31, 2024 @11:59:59 PM (EST). The primary source to resolve this is here, but if that market is closed, deleted, or there is strong evidence to the contrary additional evidence will be considered.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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