Depending on the POTUS election winner, will @Tumbles be late to pay back a loan (before EOY)?
50
174k
2025
Tumbles has gone MAGA! Update your bets! https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e?tab=comments#wfw4kxoopyf
Manifold announces house loans are being discontinued in May. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10
Manifold announces major changes to the mana economy. Including prohibiting mana transfers. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10
2%
Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan
48%
Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles is never late on a loan
2%
Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan
47%
Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles is never late on a loan
0.2%
Someone else wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan
0.5%
Someone else wins the election, Tumbles is never late on a loan

The first condition resolves based on the preponderance of news coverage reporting the winner of the 2024 POTUS Election. "Someone Else" refers to someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump winning the election (e.g. other candidates are nominated, death, disqualified, etc.).

The second condition resolves based on whether @Tumbles has been late on any loan between market creation and December 31, 2024 @11:59:59 PM (EST). The primary source to resolve this is here, but if that market is closed, deleted, or there is strong evidence to the contrary additional evidence will be considered.

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Manifold announces major changes to the mana economy. Including prohibiting mana transfers.
https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10

I like the color choices gj

bought Ṁ10 Joe Biden wins the e... NO

My cat's market can be arbitraged against this one:

reposted

Good market! Adding it to the Tumbles Financial Complex dashboard!

Woops double comment

bought Ṁ25 Donald Trump wins th... YES

The motivation of this market is that @Tumbles has several loans and has fairly large positions which are tied to Joe Biden winning / Donald Trump losing the election.

This market may help potential creditors decide the risk of late payment based on the US election results.

bought Ṁ97 Donald Trump wins th... YES
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bought Ṁ7 Donald Trump wins th... YES
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