The first condition resolves based on the preponderance of news coverage reporting the winner of the 2024 POTUS Election. "Someone Else" refers to someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump winning the election (e.g. other candidates are nominated, death, disqualified, etc.).
The second condition resolves based on whether @Tumbles has been late on any loan between market creation and December 31, 2024 @11:59:59 PM (EST). The primary source to resolve this is here, but if that market is closed, deleted, or there is strong evidence to the contrary additional evidence will be considered.
Related questions
Manifold announces major changes to the mana economy. Including prohibiting mana transfers.
https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10
Tumbles has gone MAGA! Update your bets!
https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e?tab=comments#wfw4kxoopyf
Woops double comment
The motivation of this market is that @Tumbles has several loans and has fairly large positions which are tied to Joe Biden winning / Donald Trump losing the election.
This market may help potential creditors decide the risk of late payment based on the US election results.