Will Hunter Biden be indicted in 2022?
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The New York Times: "The [DOJ] investigation, which began as a tax inquiry under the Obama administration, widened in 2018 to include possible criminal violations of tax laws, as well as foreign lobbying and money laundering rules, according to the people familiar with the inquiry." https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/us/politics/hunter-biden-tax-bill-investigation.html
The market will resolve positive if a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing an indictment of Hunter Biden exists before January 1st, 2023. The market will otherwise resolve negative on the aforementioned date.
Peter Schweizer predicts an indictment: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/author-peter-schweizer-makes-bold-prediction-on-hunter-biden-after-new-york-times-admits-laptop-legit
Katie Benner says the DoJ "has struggled to find evidence to support criminal charges."
https://twitter.com/ktbenner/status/1504251068884172801
Ken Vogel: NYT writer who wrote that piece "@TheJusticeDept
might find it tricky to bring criminal charges against HUNTER BIDEN for several reasons, including:
➡️politics
➡️he's paid his back taxes
➡️criminal FARA requires proving intent
➡️money laundering is rarely charged as a standalone offense"
Daily Mail, March 18th 2022: "Lawyer of stripper who had Hunter Biden's daughter says he expects the President's son to be INDICTED in his criminal tax probe in Delaware and hands prosecutors MORE financial documents" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10627297/Lawyer-stripper-Hunter-Bidens-daughter-says-expects-Presidents-son-INDICTED.html
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm
Mar 27, 5:13pm: https://youtu.be/XdzZL0iOVgw?t=192 Law and Crime show: Pullitzer winning Investigative reporter David K Johnson, who has written about the Trump family's legal issues talks about the case likelihood of indictment. Notes that Trump-appointed US attorney in delaware is in charge. Said indictiment is a "distinct possibility", but notes some problems with the case, similar to Vogel.
Mar 28, 6:44pm: https://www.wsj.com/articles/prosecutors-advance-tax-probe-of-hunter-biden-11648465200 "Prosecutors Advance Tax Probe of Hunter Biden. Grand jury heard witness in February about past drug use, spending habits of president’s son"
Mar 30, 12:38pm: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/30/hunter-biden-china-laptop/ Washington Post: Inside Hunter Biden’s multimillion-dollar deals with a Chinese energy company
A Washington Post review confirms key details and offers new documentation of Biden family interactions with Chinese executives
Apr 15, 5:55pm: Posted a version of this question with a larger scope -- indictment anytime before next presidential election https://manifold.markets/dadonk/will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-befor
There's an existing question on Metuculus btw https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10541/hunter-biden-be-indicted-before-nov-5-2024/ , and I'm working on getting the shorter term 2022 question over there, but it's in queue. This will allow an apples to apples comparison between Manifold and Metuculus on this question.
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@dadonk He has not been indicted as of year end. Google searches just find old supposition that he might be some day. Should be safely able to resolve to NO.
Note that there's another market out there https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-in-20 Yet my market seems stricter (indictment only not arrest). Who wants to arbitrage?
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