Will Hunter Biden be indicted before Nov 5, 2024?
resolved Sep 15
Vox: What we know about the Hunter Biden Investigation https://www.vox.com/23012186/hunter-biden-investigation-tax-fara "The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and the Associated Press have all published stories in recent weeks with a similar theme: the investigation, run by the US attorney’s office in Delaware, has gotten increasingly active, with witnesses testifying to a grand jury. The investigation focuses on Hunter Biden’s well-compensated work for foreign interests over the past decade or so, particularly for businesses or tycoons in Ukraine, China, and Kazakhstan. The main legal questions appear to be whether Hunter violated tax laws, committed money laundering, or acted as an unregistered foreign lobbyist." A similar question already exists for 2022 (https://manifold.markets/dadonk/will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-in-20-90e270df1fb8). The purpose of this question is to expand the time range, and see if an indictment will happen before the next presidential election. This is identical to the question on Metaculus, which is currently the only one posted there about a Hunter Biden indictment. A major purpose here is also to differentiate/calibrate the probability between the two platforms. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10541/hunter-biden-be-indicted-before-nov-5-2024/ The market will resolve positive if a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing an indictment of Hunter Biden exists before November 5th, 2024. The market will otherwise resolve negative on the aforementioned date.
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predicted NO

[admin resolved]

predicted YES

“The market will resolve positive if a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing an indictment of Hunter Biden exists before November 5th, 2024. The market will otherwise resolve negative on the aforementioned date.”.

predicted YES

Please resolve.

Special counsel David Weiss intends to indict Hunter Biden on gun charges by the end of the month, Department of Justice says


The US attorney's boss is the AG and the AG's boss is hunter's dad. Seems unlikely an indictment occurs if there's any way to avoid it and save face for everyone involved.


̶C̶o̶n̶s̶t̶i̶t̶u̶t̶i̶o̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶ Banana Republic

predicted NO

@Akzzz123 LOL! These idiots are going down for perjury too. I find the attempts to make Biden look corrupt so funny when you consider how many hundreds of millions Ivanka and Jared made WHILE WORKING IN THE WHITE HOUSE. As far as I can tell Joe Biden has NEVER EMPLOYED HUNTER in a government job he could leverage for his own wealth and prestige. The banana republic is the alternative, this is called law and order my dude.

predicted NO

@Akzzz123 Like those investigations take years and he definitely knew it was ongoing. This makes anything he supposedly offered on Biden total garbage. It was extortion via media.

@BTE You can rest assured that my assessment would be the same if the Trump administration did something similar. This is an abuse and overreach of power akin to what one would expect in an authoritarian regime.

predicted NO

@Akzzz123 Again, this guy tweeted about being charged in April. He was obviously lying about Hunter Biden. So you make no sense.

@BTE What's the obvious lie and what's your evidence that it is a lie?

predicted NO

@Akzzz123 Well first he is a fugitive and has been since April, so seems like it should be on you to explain why he isn’t incentivized to lie about this. Second, the Republicans in Congress are the most biased people in the world on this topic and obviously didn’t even bother to do a background check on this dude, which would have informed them about his pending indictment since he knew about it for at least 3 months. The FBI, which is run by a REPUBLICAN, obviously tried to tell the Republicans in Congress this guy is full of shit but they are like rabid dogs in their desire to destroy Hunter. They refused to hear it and now they look like assholes.


  • Lying about Hunter Biden isn't a get of jail card anyone can use. Gal just turns out to be extremely lucky that both he and Hunter Biden had working relations with CEFC. This alone increases the probability that he isn't lying but has insider information.

  • A PhD who has authored multiple books on energy security, director of a think tank on energy security cofounded by ex head of CIA (Clinton administration) is somehow an arms trafficker just doesn't pass the smell test.

  • His lies can easily be disproved since there are meeting records of his 2019 meeting with FBI, DOJ which he claims were about investigating Biden family's CEFC relations.

  • Hunter gets more than an order of magnitude more $$ than Gal from CEFC, yet Gal is somehow labelled as a Chinese "agent" should ring the figurative bs detector.

predicted NO

@Akzzz123 So Trump investigating Hunter in 2019 isn’t a banana republic?? I don’t understand. Is it only bad when a democrat does it? You have directly contradicted yourself.

@BTE One of the allegations is that the DoJ, FBI during the Trump administration sat on the whistleblower information and did not investigate those claims against Hunter Biden.

I'm not interested in your weird partisan gotcha games. Strange to see such a religious devotion to a political party.

No one is ever indicted. Very low base rate odds.