Description

Background & Context

France finances its public debt and structural deficits by issuing government bonds (OATs - Obligations Assimilables du Trésor) and short-term notes (BTFs - Bons du Trésor à Taux Fixe) through regular auctions managed by the Agence France Trésor (AFT).

Definition of an "Incident"

For this market to resolve YES, an official borrowing incident must occur before December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM UTC).

An incident is defined as a scenario where the French state fails to raise the targeted or intended amount during a scheduled debt issuance (auction), or where an auction must be canceled, significantly undersubscribed to a critical degree, or requires emergency intervention due to a total lack of market demand.

Resolution Criteria

• YES: Officially reported by the Agence France Trésor, Bloomberg, Reuters, or major financial news outlets that a scheduled French state debt auction failed to secure sufficient bids to cover the announced target amount, resulting in a shortfall or cancellation.

• NO: France successfully covers all its planned debt issuances through the end of 2027 without experiencing a failed or critically undersubscribed funding auction as defined above.