Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if France officially ceases to be a member state of the European Union prior to January 1, 2030, at 00:00 UTC.

Official withdrawal is defined as the entry into force of a withdrawal agreement pursuant to Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), or the expiration of the Article 50 negotiation period without an extension, such that EU treaties no longer apply to France.

If France has formally invoked Article 50 or voted in a referendum to leave, but the withdrawal process has not taken legal effect before January 1, 2030, this market resolves to NO.

The primary source for verification will be official declarations from the European Council and the French government's official journal (Légifrance), or credible international news reporting confirming the legal exit date.

Background

Under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, any member state may decide to withdraw in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. The process typically requires formal notification to the European Council, followed by a negotiation window of up to two years (unless unanimously extended).

While Eurosceptic rhetoric ("Frexit") has periodically surfaced in French politics—most notably championed in the past by factions of the National Rally (Rassemblement National)—mainstream French right-wing and left-wing Eurosceptic parties have largely shifted away from proposing an outright departure from the EU or the eurozone, favoring internal reform or treaty renegotiation instead. An actual French exit before 2030 would require either a sudden political shift, constitutional/referendum approval, and the completion of the multi-year Article 50 process.