Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the French government officially halts or terminates direct state funding to Ukraine at any point during calendar year 2027 (January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027, UTC).

For the purpose of resolution:

• "Direct state funding" includes bilateral financial aid, budgetary grants, direct loans, or dedicated bilateral reconstruction and defense assistance funds financed by the French state (such as the Fonds de soutien à l'Ukraine or funding via Agence Française de Développement).

• A policy decision or executive order completely ending or indefinitely freezing bilateral financial disbursements to Ukraine satisfies the condition for YES.

• A standard expiration of a pre-scheduled multi-year program does not trigger YES unless accompanied by an explicit French government decision or executive declaration to stop, suspend, or block future funding to Ukraine.

• Routine administrative delays, disbursements made through existing EU multilateral programs (unless France unilaterally cuts or formally blocks its statutory national contribution), or mutual adjustments due to peace treaties do not trigger YES.

• If bilateral funding continues to be budgeted and disbursed by France to Ukraine throughout 2027, the market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined using official communiqués from the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs (diplomatie.gouv.fr), the Élysée Palace (elysee.fr), or consensus reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AFP, Financial Times, Le Monde).

Background

French support for Ukraine has been anchored in bilateral agreements and multi-year reconstruction and military support funds, alongside European Union financing instruments.

The question of whether French aid will continue past 2027 has become a central debate in French politics leading up to the 2027 presidential election. Figures such as National Rally leader Marine Le Pen have voiced opposition to expanding aid, pledging to end bilateral financial assistance to Ukraine within months of taking office due to budgetary pressures, while President Emmanuel Macron and centrist/left coalitions have maintained that sustained financial and defense commitments to Ukraine are critical to broader European security.