EU debt classified as sovereign before 2027?
2
1kṀ200
2026
41%
chance

The market resolves YES if, at any time before 1 January 2027, any of the following index providers formally classifies European Union–issued debt as sovereign debt:

  • MSCI Inc.

  • Bloomberg Index Services Limited (including Bloomberg/Barclays fixed-income index classifications)

  • FTSE Russell (including classifications relevant for the World Government Bond Index and related benchmarks)

  • ICE Data Indices

A classification counts only if it appears in official methodology documents, index-provider announcements, or other public statements issued directly by the institution and clearly designating EU-issued debt (including, but not limited to, NextGenerationEU bonds) as sovereign.

If none of these providers adopt such a classification before the 1 January 2027, the market resolves NO.

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