EU debt classified as sovereign before 2027?
2
1kṀ2002026
41%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The market resolves YES if, at any time before 1 January 2027, any of the following index providers formally classifies European Union–issued debt as sovereign debt:
MSCI Inc.
Bloomberg Index Services Limited (including Bloomberg/Barclays fixed-income index classifications)
FTSE Russell (including classifications relevant for the World Government Bond Index and related benchmarks)
ICE Data Indices
A classification counts only if it appears in official methodology documents, index-provider announcements, or other public statements issued directly by the institution and clearly designating EU-issued debt (including, but not limited to, NextGenerationEU bonds) as sovereign.
If none of these providers adopt such a classification before the 1 January 2027, the market resolves NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
No new countries join the European Union (EU) in 2027
70% chance
EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?
28% chance
EU officially a federation by January 1, 2040?
33% chance
US abolishes debt ceiling before 2029?
18% chance
Will the United States default on its sovereign debt obligations by December 31, 2025?
2% chance
France defaults on debt by 2027?
6% chance
Will Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?
27% chance
Will any OECD country undergo a sovereign debt crisis by end of 2025?
8% chance
US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
4% chance
Will Ukraine default on any of it's national government debt in 2025?
10% chance