This market forecasts whether a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will occur before September 30, 2025. Resolution will be based on official records from the Spanish Parliament. Spanish Parliament Official Website

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is initiated in the Spanish Parliament between July 1, 2025, and September 30, 2025. The initiation is marked by the formal submission of the motion to the Congress of Deputies. Verification will be based on official records from the Spanish Parliament's website: https://www.congreso.es/.

Background

A vote of no confidence in Spain requires at least one-tenth of the Congress of Deputies (35 out of 350 members) to propose the motion, which must include an alternative candidate for prime minister. For the motion to succeed, it must be approved by an absolute majority. Notably, Pedro Sánchez became prime minister in June 2018 after a successful no-confidence motion against Mariano Rajoy. (english.elpais.com)

Considerations

As of July 1, 2025, the political climate in Spain is marked by tensions within the governing coalition and opposition parties. Recent corruption allegations involving close associates of Prime Minister Sánchez have intensified calls for accountability. The Popular Party (PP) has been exploring the possibility of initiating a no-confidence motion, seeking support from other parties. However, securing the necessary majority remains uncertain due to the complex dynamics among Spain's political factions. (as.com)