Resolution criteria

A general election will be held in Spain no later than Sunday, 22 August 2027, to elect the members of the 16th Cortes Generales. This market resolves YES if a national general election to elect a new prime minister occurs at any point during 2026. It resolves NO if no such election takes place in 2026 (with the scheduled 2027 election occurring instead).

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Spanish government or the Spanish Electoral Commission (Junta Electoral Central). The election must be a general election for the Congress of Deputies and Senate, not regional elections.

Background

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly voiced his will for the next general election to be held when due in 2027, particularly following the resignation in June 2025 of his party's organization secretary, Santos Cerdán, amid corruption allegations. However, the government's political strategy, uncertainty over the 2026 General State Budget, as well as Sánchez having previously promised to exhaust legislative terms before ultimately calling snap elections—in 2019 and 2023—has led to speculation that an early general election could be in the cards throughout 2026.

Regional elections will be held in Spain during 2026 to elect the regional parliaments of at least three of the seventeen autonomous communities: Andalusia, Aragon and Castile and León. The PP's aim to seek either an electoral "Super Sunday" or an election cascade by early 2026 by forcing several of their controlled autonomous communities to call early elections (with Extremadura, Castile and León, Andalusia and Aragon as the most likely candidates), as well as uncertainty over the parliamentary support provided to Sánchez's government by Junts, were also commented as possible triggers of a snap general election.

Considerations

Both chambers are to be dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process fails to elect a prime minister within a two-month period from the first ballot. This constitutional mechanism could trigger a 2026 election if the government loses its parliamentary majority and cannot form a new government through the investiture process.