Update 2025-09-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves to the first person who becomes Prime Minister of Spain after Pedro Sánchez.
Pedro Sánchez will not be selected as a winning answer.
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My assumption of "after Pedro Sánchez" was that we are assessing the chances of candidates other than Pedro Sánchez.
The question is open until 2040 because the new Prime Minister can be elected in 2027, 2031, 2035, ... depending on how much Pedro Sánchez will last.
I don't think the response by @LucasPrietoAl "Pedro Sánchez" is valid for this market.
Can we clarify this topic @JuJumper?
@MiguelLimaMedin fair enough, I understood it as "who will win the next general election" but I see your point. Either way it would be good to clarify
@LucasPrietoAl I agree the question is not completely clear.
On my first quick read the next general election was the first thing to come into my mind. After a more careful read, and specially when I noticed the closing date as 2040, I understood the bet was not about the next election but rather the next PM after Sánchez (either in next election or later). This distinction affected my vote.
I probably should have asked for this clarification earlier, so that it was more transparent for everybody else.
My assumption of "after Pedro Sánchez" was that we are assessing the chances of candidates other than Pedro Sánchez.
correct, that's the intention of this market