Will Twitter report any outages by December 15th? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 14

Twitter Polymarket

Will Twitter report any outages by December 15th?

5%

chance

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Twitter reports any partial or major outages between November 16, and December 15, 2022. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

See: https://polymarket.com/market/will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022

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bought Ṁ217 of NO

Is this a "partial outage" or "degraded performance"?
https://api.twitterstat.us/incidents/p6ybhwysf6qz

Additional arbitrage:

https://manifold.markets/JohnRoxton/will-twitter-suffer-a-major-outage-ac6f14cbf3c3

Also:

bought Ṁ3 of YES

Arbitrage:

bought Ṁ10 NO at 5%

bought Ṁ5 YES at 5%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 5%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 4% to 5%

sold Ṁ14 NO at 4%

Amund Kristiansen

bought Ṁ65 NO at 4%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 4%

sold Ṁ1 YES from 5% to 4%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 5%

bought Ṁ1,500 NO from 8% to 5%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 8%

filled limit order Ṁ184/Ṁ184 NO at 8%

sold Ṁ4 NO at 9%

bought Ṁ500 NO from 10% to 9%

bought Ṁ25 NO from 11% to 10%

bought Ṁ50 NO at 11%

sold Ṁ1 YES at 11%

sold Ṁ17 NO at 11%

bought Ṁ100 NO at 11%

Benjamin Herman

sold Ṁ10 YES from 12% to 11%

filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ15 YES at 10%

filled limit order Ṁ135/Ṁ200 NO at 12% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 9% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ136/Ṁ150 NO at 13% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 15% to 14%

sold Ṁ17 NO at 15%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 15%

sold Ṁ11 NO at 15%

bought Ṁ12 NO at 15%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ98/Ṁ150 NO at 15% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ217/Ṁ217 NO at 16%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 20% to 19%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ37/Ṁ50 NO at 20% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 22% to 21%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 22%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 24% to 23%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 24%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 25% to 24%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 25%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 24% to 25%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 26% to 24%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 28% to 26%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ44/Ṁ150 NO at 28% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 32% to 29%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 36% to 32%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 36%

sold Ṁ5 YES at 36%

bought Ṁ35 YES from 34% to 36%

sold Ṁ137 NO from 29% to 34%

sold Ṁ44 NO from 28% to 29%