Will Twitter suffer a major outage by the end of the week (2022-11-20)?
16
19
330
resolved Nov 21
Resolved
NO

There are reports that Twitter is at risk of a major outage tonight due to the recent exodus of staff:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/after-elon-musks-ultimatum-twitter-employees-start-exiting-2022-11-18/

This market will resolve YES if there is a major outage or security incident at Twitter before midnight UTC on Monday 21st November. If it is reported as a serious issue on the front page of the BBC or similar news orgs, or affects the majority of users for >=1hr it will count as 'major', but I may use my discretion to consider other such events 'major'.

I will not bet in this market.

In all other cases, this market will resolve NO.

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predicted YES

So... 2 factor authentication via SMS miiiiight have gotten shut down by accident... https://www.ign.com/articles/twitters-two-factor-authentication-started-failing-for-certain-users

@SophiaLaird Thank you for sharing this. I don't consider this a major outage for the purposes of resolving this market.