I once spent multiple consecutive months eating a 100% Huel diet, I believe that saved about 30 minutes a day. But I think it's possible in the future we will know that this is a bad idea, e.g. maybe Huel has a high amount of microplastics because of the amount of processing steps it goes through, and we end up discovering microplastics are really bad. Or maybe eating the same thing every meal is really bad for your microbiome.
This market resolves Yes if in the future the consensus is that eating a 100% Huel diet (of the Sep 21, 2025 Powder formula, chocolate flavor, maintainence calories) is less healthy than a typical healthy whole foods mediterranean diet, calorie matched, to an extent I judge is not worth an extra 30 minutes a day.
I will resolve this question by, at minimum, asking a competent LLM for its perspective to get up to date on the science, read the comments here, and then resolve, in 2035.
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I've eaten HUEL 100% for 2 weeks to 2 months (not sure anymore but I've consumed two big bags of the protein and the other flavour, then purchased two additional protein bags). I've started developing shaking symptoms (fingers started to shake slightly then more and more) and farted so much it was incredible. I've also developed severe cramps (I've never had such cramps before) which led me to stop consuming it. Niklas Steenfatt was the YouTube who recommended Huel, I've even got merch from them for buying so much. I thought oh great finally I don't have to cook anymore but the cramps were crazy. My whole leg and butt cramped in the middle of the night so I couldn't sleep. I didn't even train that much. I've thrown away the two expensive protein bags after that. This stuff makes you sick for sure.
@IBetOnInsiderKnowledgeOnl I mean, I work out, did 100% Huel for longer and never got anything like that. I'm not sure why you would take the protein powder if you already have 100% Huel, it's arguably already borderline too much protein in the formula
@creator Let's get a control group. If you run market resolution protocol today (asking the LLM and making a judgement), how would it resolve?
@Yakushi12345 Yes, not chewing is bad for you as you need chewing to be able to consume food. If you chew more then you digest it more. Source: A friend of mine who studies pharmacy.
@Fion also, will you ask the LLM to give you a single yes/no answer, or will you tell it you're trying to resolve a market, or will you ask an open ended question and interpret the result yourself?
Is "resolve to %" a thing that can happen with this market?
@Fion I would ask an open ended question to get the information I'm interested in, and then resolve based on my judgements on if it is "worth it".
@HomesickAlien I did an analysis of that, I need to look for it. Iirc the conclusion was a bit cheaper than regular food
@TylerMurphy that’s an interesting metric: % of life gained per unit time spent on a task such that you’re neutral about whether it was worth it. I’m sure it varies widely by task and person.
@TylerMurphy Do people really hate cooking and eating this much? I find both things quite enjoyable.
@ProjectVictory I dislike both, but of course I am an unusual case. I am also by default underweight because of this dislike
@colorednoise which do you dislike more? What would be the breakeven point?
You said "to an extent I judge is not worth an extra 30 minutes a day" so it'd be helpful to know what kinds of bad health effects would justify it and what wouldn't.
@TylerMurphy That was a response to Project Victory's comment
The reason I'm not responding to clarification questions is I think it's unlikely that this market will end up being borderline in either case, and regardless I think the borderline scenario is less interesting. If I do engage this could end up being a very long philosophical discussion that would only move the market a few percentage points.
A common failure point for previously created questions of mine is that I spend more time managing the market than the value I get from it, which is something I want to avoid this time.
I considered adding a breakeven point, but "health effects" might be of multiple different types and likely won't be as clean as "losing 15 minutes of healthspan a day" without any other effects.