There is a decades-long natural experiment on 100% formulated diets that is worth reading before pricing this: pet food. Most dogs in rich countries eat nothing but a single complete-and-balanced product for their whole lives, and the regulatory standard for calling a food complete is thin: AAFCO lets a product claim it by matching a nutrient-profile table, or by a feeding trial of 26 weeks in as few as eight dogs. The system mostly works, which is the optimistic reading for Huel. The pessimistic reading is what happened in 2018 to 2022: the FDA investigated more than 1,100 reports of dilated cardiomyopathy in dogs eating grain-free, legume-heavy diets, a signal that only appeared after years of apparently fine use and that was never resolved into a confirmed mechanism before the FDA stopped issuing updates. Taurine deficiency cardiomyopathy in cats on complete commercial diets (fixed in 1987) is the earlier example. So the base rate for formulated-only diets is: fine for most, with occasional sub-population problems found late, which is roughly what the 74% here implies. Dogs sharing our table is also why they are the species for the first lifespan trials of anti-aging drugs; registry (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/

Canine aging trial registry

Registry of 37 interventional studies and cohorts on aging in dogs, each typed and backed by verbatim source quotes.

Discussions about extreme diets like living on 100% meal replacements always make me think about balance. Even if something looks efficient on paper, the body usually reacts better to variety and gentle routines. I’ve learned that health isn’t just about what you consume, but also how you move and manage stress. When I wanted something calm to support my body alongside normal eating, I got into beginner Tai Chi and used this guide https://madmuscles.com/taichi-for-beginners . It felt grounding and sustainable, not extreme. Slow movement and breathing helped me stay more in tune with my body, which seems way more realistic long term than relying on any single “perfect” solution.

Personal experience shows that this is definitely the case, so for me, it's just a question of whether there's a consensus on this by 2035.

@Elspeth how long have you experienced with a 100% Huel diet? What were the health issues?

@MachiNi I believe at least 6 years where it accounted for at least 50% of my caloric intake, and at least a few years at the end where it accounted for about 80%. I was also on a mostly vegan diet for most of this period, though I occasionally ate egg and dairy products, especially during the last year. The problems I developed were deficiencies in vitamins D and B12, as well as low ferritin levels. I've continued to have a vitamin D deficiency without supplementing after switching away.

@Elspeth all vegans need B12 supplementation. 80% of the population doesn’t have enough vitamin D.

@MachiNi Are you advocating for the diet?

@GazDownright Huel? No. I’m agnostic. All I’m saying is these issues don’t speak against the diet since they’re quite common.

@MachiNi Arguments are lacking scientific rigor. Both for and against.

@GazDownright indeed, most nutritional advice is garbage

from @Seconds_0 in the other market:

https://x.com/parismartineau/status/1978155280803238160

A single serving of Huel has between 1200 and 1600% of the concerning lead intake as well as excess cadmium.

https://manifold.markets/JasonQ/will-living-off-huel-be-shown-to-ha#pdd0g0mtak9

@TheAllMemeingEye

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebsdetector/p/huel-is-fine?r=di5yu&utm_medium=ios

@MachiNi excellent post, thanks for sharing

salut comment allez vous je vous remercie beaucoup pour votre service

I've eaten HUEL 100% for 2 weeks to 2 months (not sure anymore but I've consumed two big bags of the protein and the other flavour, then purchased two additional protein bags). I've started developing shaking symptoms (fingers started to shake slightly then more and more) and farted so much it was incredible. I've also developed severe cramps (I've never had such cramps before) which led me to stop consuming it. Niklas Steenfatt was the YouTube who recommended Huel, I've even got merch from them for buying so much. I thought oh great finally I don't have to cook anymore but the cramps were crazy. My whole leg and butt cramped in the middle of the night so I couldn't sleep. I didn't even train that much. I've thrown away the two expensive protein bags after that. This stuff makes you sick for sure.

@IBetOnInsiderKnowledgeOnl I mean, I work out, did 100% Huel for longer and never got anything like that. I'm not sure why you would take the protein powder if you already have 100% Huel, it's arguably already borderline too much protein in the formula

@IBetOnInsiderKnowledgeOnl aren’t the shaking symptoms due to drinking too many shakes?

@creator Let's get a control group. If you run market resolution protocol today (asking the LLM and making a judgement), how would it resolve?

@Quroe At present I would resolve No.

This market would already resolve Yes nowadays. I don't really get the purpose of it.

I suspect "all huel" is likely to have some minor downsides that even "mostly huel" might not. Ex, is it bad for body to never digest solid food?

Im not sure what kind of Huel the question is about, but Huel also do a range of solid 'food', like pasta and curry.

@Yakushi12345 Yes, not chewing is bad for you as you need chewing to be able to consume food. If you chew more then you digest it more. Source: A friend of mine who studies pharmacy.

Would it be an idea to say in advance what question you'll ask the LLM? I'm particularly interested in how much emphasis will be put on "consensus" as this is notoriously difficult to achieve in nutrition science.

@Fion also, will you ask the LLM to give you a single yes/no answer, or will you tell it you're trying to resolve a market, or will you ask an open ended question and interpret the result yourself?

Is "resolve to %" a thing that can happen with this market?

@Fion I would ask an open ended question to get the information I'm interested in, and then resolve based on my judgements on if it is "worth it".