Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

Ṁ1kṀ2.7k

Dec 31

11%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if by December 31, 2026, at least 5 AI safety/security researchers from at least 3 different organizations publicly state that prompt injection has been effectively solved for production systems. At least one organization must be independent (not OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI). Researchers must have published AI safety/security work or work at recognized AI safety organizations.

Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has updated the resolution criteria in response to feedback about the title conflicting with the original criteria (which focused on claims rather than actual solving of prompt injection).

Update 2026-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Solved" means we know how to fix prompt injection, not that it is no longer an issue in practice. (Similar to how SQL injections are solved in that we know how to avoid them, even though they still occur in practice.)

Market context

World

Technology

Technical AI Timelines

News

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

32% chance

Will there be an Opioid Vaccine available by the end of 2026?

6% chance

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is NOT completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

46% chance

Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2026?

19% chance

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

53% chance

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028?

50% chance

💊Will INS018_055 be FDA-approved by 2030?

48% chance

Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?

72% chance

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ50 NO

Does "solved" mean it is no longer an issue, or that we know how to fix it? For example, SQL injections are still a problem in practice, even though it is extremely well documented how to avoid them.

@vee means we know how to fix it

The title says this market is about whether it's solved, but the resolution criteria are about CLAIMS that it has been solved. According to how this is written, if five guys from Anthropic claim it's solved, then this resolves YES, even if they're lying or incorrect.

@ChurlishGambit I'll consider updating the title to "Will 5+ frontier AI employees claim prompt injection is solved by 2027?". Going to wait for more feedback since this just launched.

@ProbabilityPanda Well I mean, more feedback isn't going to change the fact that the title conflicts with your chosen resolution criteria.

@ChurlishGambit what resolution criteria would you suggest to better match the title?

@ProbabilityPanda You'd need something that proves prompt injection has been solved, not just claims. Perhaps a study put out by someone not financially involved in making chat-bots, testing by reputable journalists, things of that sort.