Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028?

Ṁ110Ṁ291

2029

50%

chance

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The Daily Mail interviews Andrew Steele, the author of Ageless: The New Science of Getting Older Without Getting Old. Steele makes a couple of key predictions in the interview:

"I'd be shocked if in five years we don't have some senolytics in the clinic. It probably won't be for aging at first. It'll be for a specific disease - and maybe in 10 years, we'll use it for aging. These things are very, very near term."

This market is conerned with the first of those predictions: Clinical use of senolytics in humans for any purpose by 2028 (within 5 years of 2023). Senolytics are simply drugs whose mechanism of action is the destruction of senescent cells.

Resolves YES if credible news articles or medical journals describe the successful clinical use of a new senolytic drug outside of trials before the end date. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not be betting in this market.

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State of the field, two years out. Unity's UBX1325, the most advanced purpose-built senolytic, missed the primary endpoint of its Phase 2b ASPIRE study in diabetic macular edema in March 2025 (not non-inferior to aflibercept at weeks 20 and 24) and the company moved to exploring strategic alternatives with cash into late 2025. Rubedo's RLS-1496 dosed its first Phase 1 patient in May 2025, as a topical for psoriasis, with a systemic version planned for Phase 1 in 2026. Dasatinib plus quercetin is in several Phase 2 trials (childhood-cancer survivors, accelerated aging in mental disorders) and is already prescribed off-label by longevity clinics, which is where the resolution question lives: dasatinib is an approved leukemia drug, so used clinically is true for the molecule and not yet for any senolytic indication. The one randomized placebo-controlled senolytic trial in a mammal outside a lab is in dogs: LY-D6/2, a senolytic plus NAD precursor, 70 senior dogs with cognitive impairment, owner-rated cognition improved at 3 months (p = 0.02) while the in-house cognitive tests and activity monitors showed no difference (Scientific Reports 2024, PMID 38811634), and it is sold for dogs as a supplement rather than a drug; record with quotes (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/ly-d6-2-senolytic-nad-precursor-senior-dogs-rct-2024.html

Betting NO just from the low base rate of success of claims about something entering the clinic in near future.

mfw this is trading lower

Since it doesn't look like I ever linked it in, here's the companion market for the second half of Steele's statement (clinical use for treating aging within 10 years):