Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028? | Manifold

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028?

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11

Ṁ291

2029

50%

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The Daily Mail interviews Andrew Steele, the author of Ageless: The New Science of Getting Older Without Getting Old. Steele makes a couple of key predictions in the interview:

"I'd be shocked if in five years we don't have some senolytics in the clinic. It probably won't be for aging at first. It'll be for a specific disease - and maybe in 10 years, we'll use it for aging. These things are very, very near term."

This market is conerned with the first of those predictions: Clinical use of senolytics in humans for any purpose by 2028 (within 5 years of 2023). Senolytics are simply drugs whose mechanism of action is the destruction of senescent cells.

Resolves YES if credible news articles or medical journals describe the successful clinical use of a new senolytic drug outside of trials before the end date. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not be betting in this market.

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Betting NO just from the low base rate of success of claims about something entering the clinic in near future.

mfw this is trading lower

Since it doesn't look like I ever linked it in, here's the companion market for the second half of Steele's statement (clinical use for treating aging within 10 years):

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Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?

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Will any company successfully develop a therapeutic treatment that rejuvenates healthspan by at least 10 years by 2030?

Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025?

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2028?

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