Will I get an offer from Anthropic?
Will I get an offer from Anthropic?
9
510Ṁ172resolved Jul 6
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Follow along the story in https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/where-will-i-end-up-working
TLDR: I'm a MLOps / backend software dev, and I've been interviewing at Anthropic. I've just finished what I believe is their "final checks" step, detailed at https://www.anthropic.com/careers. I've OK'd the background check, and my references are getting calls, so I think the next communications I get will be either an offer or a rejection.
From my perspective things have gone well, but I'm getting anxious, so I want to outsource my probability estimates to the market.
YES if I get any offer for employment, even if I don't accept, even if the offer is something very different from what I'm expecting
NO if I get a rejection, or if I don't hear back by the end of 14 July
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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