We're playing as black this time. Check the game board at https://lichess.org/sLmZPb9nTcNv
Lichess analysis: https://lichess.org/analysis/rnbqk2r/ppp2pp1/3b3p/8/4n3/1QP3P1/P2PPP1P/RNB2RK1_b_kq_-_1_12?color=black
This is a "Policy" market. The "Stake" market is
You can suggest any move here, but in order to vote on a move you need to be holding YES in the stake market.
In order to vote, you should make a comment that says "!VOTE <move>". Only your latest vote counts. I'll randomly select a suggested move, weighted by the number of YES shares in the stake market held by the users who voted for it. The precise evaluation time will be "some point soon after this market closes" but I'm not committing to any particular time.
This market resolves to the chosen move, and that move will be used for the continuation of the game.
"Resign" is a valid move.
Previous move:
@DelenHeisman It does, if you look at a single account on a single market. And it's difficult to have the rules cover cases beyond that. I am using two accounts that are obviously both me, but if the rules disallowed that a less transparent manipulator could easily use two accounts that are not identified as the same person.
@DelenHeisman Yep, agreed. There are at least two exploits related to that which were demonstrated already: one is holding positions with multiple accounts, and another is holding positions across multiple markets (see https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-black-win-in-manifold-plays-ch#oBUCZ4B5p9RnEA2ISVc2)
Another completely different exploit that is still possible even if voters really do only hold YES is they can use a large YES position to force whatever moves you want - including sub-optimal ones - in order to pick up profits on the move policy markets. There is an incentive to pick slightly unusual/suboptimal moves that might decrease the win probability slightly.
Hah
Move is Bf5 but nobody actually bought any
Anyone have a good suggestion for how I should resolve?
@citrinitas makes some sense though i kinda hoped we all just lost for acting out lol btw this is just perfect result i love the random bot mocking us 😂
@citrinitas Doesn't Joshua have Bf5 shares?
If this happens again maybe a solution is to resolve N/A and open a market with fixed options (the top two or three answers). Not sure about it, just suggesting something.
@citrinitas your random number is: 4156
Salt: ATX6qVFbfJ2MxXbs4zn9, round: 2663146 (signature b4e0991817f54a5e2cf36c22654f89801f3abc22013d93410e37a8deeefd0726bd770d0e81781535725b95a2df074e8007e1bb6966c453b20267ffe169abc5c764745c771693d69e3211276418ce3822bbd05604e57848615aaecb85537b0e60)
@citrinitas voted O-O (weight 40)
@A voted O-O (weight 85)
@JoshuaB voted Bf5 (weight 1643)
@DelenHeisman voted O-O (weight 2432)
@deagol voted O-O (weight 351)
@jack voted Be5 (weight 8689)
@harfe voted O-O (weight 471)
@TenShino voted Nc6 (weight 2575)
Totals:
O-O: 3379
Bf5: 1643
Be5: 8689
Nc6: 2575
To be chosen from a random draw 1-16286
1-3379 = O-O
3380-5022 = Bf5
5023-13711 = Be5
13712-16286 = Nc6
I certainly can and have in previous moves! I've been letting the markets decide the last few, but now that we've gained so much material it seems like a good time for me to start pushing for Will I achieve my secret goal on the Manifold Plays Chess 2 game?75% .