This would be much more interesting if only people with positive positions could vote.

@DelenHeisman That is how it works - see the bolded parts of the rules

@jack "Holding YES" does not mean net position long

@DelenHeisman It does, if you look at a single account on a single market. And it's difficult to have the rules cover cases beyond that. I am using two accounts that are obviously both me, but if the rules disallowed that a less transparent manipulator could easily use two accounts that are not identified as the same person.

@jack I mean I realize that it is difficult to prevent but that doesn't invalidate my original point. There's no way this would be at only 17% otherwise.

@DelenHeisman Yep, agreed. There are at least two exploits related to that which were demonstrated already: one is holding positions with multiple accounts, and another is holding positions across multiple markets (see https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-black-win-in-manifold-plays-ch#oBUCZ4B5p9RnEA2ISVc2)

Another completely different exploit that is still possible even if voters really do only hold YES is they can use a large YES position to force whatever moves you want - including sub-optimal ones - in order to pick up profits on the move policy markets. There is an incentive to pick slightly unusual/suboptimal moves that might decrease the win probability slightly.

Hah
Move is Bf5 but nobody actually bought any
Anyone have a good suggestion for how I should resolve?

@citrinitas so we all lose? who gets the loot?

@deagol I dunno
Considering options:

• resolve to market

• re-open

• n/a

Presently leaning towards n/a

@citrinitas makes some sense though i kinda hoped we all just lost for acting out lol btw this is just perfect result i love the random bot mocking us 😂

@citrinitas Doesn't Joshua have Bf5 shares?

If this happens again maybe a solution is to resolve N/A and open a market with fixed options (the top two or three answers). Not sure about it, just suggesting something.

ooooh damn the UI was hiding that result
crap, that's my fault
@JoshuaB I'll figure out how to manalink you the appropriate amount

@citrinitas oh wow but now we losers come out scot-free? seems unfair to you

Ehh, go ahead and take the windfall as a kind of extra subsidy

@JoshuaB by my tally you should have won 419 mana. I'll send you a manalink if you let me know how I should send it to you

FYI the low-probability options are hidden under "Show more", it's pretty easy to miss.

@citrinitas your random number is: 4156

Salt: ATX6qVFbfJ2MxXbs4zn9, round: 2663146 (signature b4e0991817f54a5e2cf36c22654f89801f3abc22013d93410e37a8deeefd0726bd770d0e81781535725b95a2df074e8007e1bb6966c453b20267ffe169abc5c764745c771693d69e3211276418ce3822bbd05604e57848615aaecb85537b0e60)

@FairlyRandom 16286

@citrinitas you asked for a random integer between 1 and 16286, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2663144 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2663146, salt: ATX6qVFbfJ2MxXbs4zn9.

@citrinitas voted O-O (weight 40)

@A voted O-O (weight 85)

@JoshuaB voted Bf5 (weight 1643)

@DelenHeisman voted O-O (weight 2432)

@deagol voted O-O (weight 351)

@jack voted Be5 (weight 8689)

@harfe voted O-O (weight 471)

@TenShino voted Nc6 (weight 2575)

Totals:

O-O: 3379

Bf5: 1643

Be5: 8689

Nc6: 2575

To be chosen from a random draw 1-16286

1-3379 = O-O

3380-5022 = Bf5

5023-13711 = Be5

13712-16286 = Nc6

!VOTE Nc6

!VOTE O-O

!VOTE Be5

@jack smites us

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FkFh3CVP96h.png?alt=media&token=b1f1e93e-371b-4904-91be-f312f33d6697

@deagol oops I meant to embed it instead of link

@deagol

Be5 truly isn't that bad, LiFish still gives it a -6.2 at depth 22; still an obviously winning position. I for one eagerly welcome this foolish move!!

!VOTE Bf5

@JoshuaB it’s not about this move in particular. heck we could give up the queen and still have a chance against this SF L3. The issue for us is the misaligned interests with our most powerful stakeholder approving the moves.

@jack can you be swayed by moving and vividly argued poems (or for that matter, wildly written and incoherent poems)?

I certainly can and have in previous moves! I've been letting the markets decide the last few, but now that we've gained so much material it seems like a good time for me to start pushing for /jack/will-i-achieve-my-secret-goal-on-th .

@JoshuaB @jack it’s like playing dice with god, your only chance may be to act irrationally (cf. Pascal’s wager, not Einstein)