[Manifold Plays Chess 2] 12. Qb3 ...
[Manifold Plays Chess 2] 12. Qb3 ...
8
600Ṁ755
resolved Feb 2
ResolvedN/A
78%
Be5
14%
O-O
6%Other
1.6%
Nc6

We're playing as black this time. Check the game board at https://lichess.org/sLmZPb9nTcNv

Lichess analysis: https://lichess.org/analysis/rnbqk2r/ppp2pp1/3b3p/8/4n3/1QP3P1/P2PPP1P/RNB2RK1_b_kq_-_1_12?color=black

This is a "Policy" market. The "Stake" market is

You can suggest any move here, but in order to vote on a move you need to be holding YES in the stake market.

In order to vote, you should make a comment that says "!VOTE <move>". Only your latest vote counts. I'll randomly select a suggested move, weighted by the number of YES shares in the stake market held by the users who voted for it. The precise evaluation time will be "some point soon after this market closes" but I'm not committing to any particular time.

This market resolves to the chosen move, and that move will be used for the continuation of the game.

"Resign" is a valid move.

Previous move:

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2y

This would be much more interesting if only people with positive positions could vote.

2y

@DelenHeisman That is how it works - see the bolded parts of the rules

2y

@jack "Holding YES" does not mean net position long

2y

@DelenHeisman It does, if you look at a single account on a single market. And it's difficult to have the rules cover cases beyond that. I am using two accounts that are obviously both me, but if the rules disallowed that a less transparent manipulator could easily use two accounts that are not identified as the same person.

2y

@jack I mean I realize that it is difficult to prevent but that doesn't invalidate my original point. There's no way this would be at only 17% otherwise.

2y

@DelenHeisman Yep, agreed. There are at least two exploits related to that which were demonstrated already: one is holding positions with multiple accounts, and another is holding positions across multiple markets (see https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-black-win-in-manifold-plays-ch#oBUCZ4B5p9RnEA2ISVc2)

Another completely different exploit that is still possible even if voters really do only hold YES is they can use a large YES position to force whatever moves you want - including sub-optimal ones - in order to pick up profits on the move policy markets. There is an incentive to pick slightly unusual/suboptimal moves that might decrease the win probability slightly.

2y

Hah
Move is Bf5 but nobody actually bought any
Anyone have a good suggestion for how I should resolve?

2y

@citrinitas so we all lose? who gets the loot?

2y

@deagol I dunno
Considering options:

  • resolve to market

  • re-open

  • n/a

Presently leaning towards n/a

2y

@citrinitas makes some sense though i kinda hoped we all just lost for acting out lol btw this is just perfect result i love the random bot mocking us 😂

2y

@citrinitas Doesn't Joshua have Bf5 shares?

If this happens again maybe a solution is to resolve N/A and open a market with fixed options (the top two or three answers). Not sure about it, just suggesting something.

2y

ooooh damn the UI was hiding that result
crap, that's my fault
@JoshuaB I'll figure out how to manalink you the appropriate amount

2y

@citrinitas oh wow but now we losers come out scot-free? seems unfair to you

2y

Ehh, go ahead and take the windfall as a kind of extra subsidy

@JoshuaB by my tally you should have won 419 mana. I'll send you a manalink if you let me know how I should send it to you

2y

FYI the low-probability options are hidden under "Show more", it's pretty easy to miss.

2y

@citrinitas your random number is: 4156

Salt: ATX6qVFbfJ2MxXbs4zn9, round: 2663146 (signature b4e0991817f54a5e2cf36c22654f89801f3abc22013d93410e37a8deeefd0726bd770d0e81781535725b95a2df074e8007e1bb6966c453b20267ffe169abc5c764745c771693d69e3211276418ce3822bbd05604e57848615aaecb85537b0e60)

2y
2y

@citrinitas you asked for a random integer between 1 and 16286, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2663144 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2663146, salt: ATX6qVFbfJ2MxXbs4zn9.

2y

@citrinitas voted O-O (weight 40)

@A voted O-O (weight 85)

@JoshuaB voted Bf5 (weight 1643)

@DelenHeisman voted O-O (weight 2432)

@deagol voted O-O (weight 351)

@jack voted Be5 (weight 8689)

@harfe voted O-O (weight 471)

@TenShino voted Nc6 (weight 2575)

Totals:

O-O: 3379

Bf5: 1643

Be5: 8689

Nc6: 2575

To be chosen from a random draw 1-16286

1-3379 = O-O

3380-5022 = Bf5

5023-13711 = Be5

13712-16286 = Nc6

2y

!VOTE Nc6

2y

!VOTE O-O

2y

!VOTE Be5

2y

@jack smites us

2y

@deagol oops I meant to embed it instead of link

2y

@deagol

Be5 truly isn't that bad, LiFish still gives it a -6.2 at depth 22; still an obviously winning position. I for one eagerly welcome this foolish move!!

!VOTE Bf5

2y

@JoshuaB it’s not about this move in particular. heck we could give up the queen and still have a chance against this SF L3. The issue for us is the misaligned interests with our most powerful stakeholder approving the moves.

2y

@jack can you be swayed by moving and vividly argued poems (or for that matter, wildly written and incoherent poems)?

2y

I certainly can and have in previous moves! I've been letting the markets decide the last few, but now that we've gained so much material it seems like a good time for me to start pushing for Will I achieve my secret goal on the Manifold Plays Chess 2 game?75% .

2y

@JoshuaB @jack it’s like playing dice with god, your only chance may be to act irrationally (cf. Pascal’s wager, not Einstein)

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