We're playing as black, against lichess's level 3 stockfish bot as white. Will we win?

Resolves YES if we get a checkmate / lichess resigns, or NO if we're mated by lichess, or PROB at 50% if it's a draw, or N/A if I'm unable to continue for some reason.

I'll post a separate market for each turn, that will close daily at midnight PST. Anyone who holds YES on this market can vote for a move in the comments.

https://manifold.markets/group/manifold-plays-chess

), we lost -- someone bought a bunch of NO and then bid up bad moves. This is an experiment to see if that can be avoided with good market structure.