Will factory farming take a hit in 2024?
2
70Ṁ20
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Tracking predictions from the podcast Oh No, Ross and Carrie! episode 399. Transcript available at https://maximumfun.org/transcripts/oh-no-ross-and-carrie/transcript-oh-no-ross-and-carrie-ep-399-ross-carrie-and-psychics-predict-2024-cancer-cures-and-election-edition/

Carrie Poppy: [...] Alright. Next one. “Factory farming is gonna take a hit in 2024. Many animal rights successes and heartwarming stories!” Great! I don’t know if it’ll be more than every year, but we’ll see.

I will resolve according to their evaluation in 2025 ("No" for a zero on their scale, "N/A" for one, and "Yes" for two)

With the podcast ending, I can no longer simply defer to the host's judgements for the resolution. Please vote in this poll if you have thoughts on how I should resolve these markets:

Animal welfare
Vegan
Animal Consumption Trends
Oh No, Ross and Carrie!
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ8
Sort by:

Even the bird flu scares don't seem to have led to "many animal rights successes and heartwarming stories", so NO.

@traders my resolution criteria for this market failed to account for the possibility that we wouldn't get ratings from Ross and Carrie, but with the podcast having ended that now seems pretty likely. Please vote in this poll to let me know if you'd prefer me to use my judgement instead, or just resolve this market N/A.

Either way, I will not trade in this market.

People are also trading

Will some factory farmed animals be made incapable of experiencing any physical or psychological suffering, by 2030?
6% chance
In 2068, will animal farming will be less than 10% of its size as of 2023?
54% chance
Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2040?
50% chance
Will factory farming still be legal in most countries by 2050?
50% chance
Will factory farming have been outlawed in at least one country by 2050?
85% chance
Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2050?
70% chance
Will the last legal factory farm (with animals) in the USA be shut down by EOY 2050?
23% chance
Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075?
74% chance
Will there be a year, before 2040, in which *net* AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?
53% chance
Will meat from animals that have been bred to feel little or no suffering be commercially available by 2044?
19% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy